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引用本文:曹鸿兴,何会中,刘海涛,夏军,蔡秀华,施會泛.东亚季风的气候变化及其时间序列模型.湖泊科学,2003,15(Z1):23-29. DOI:10.18307/2003.sup03
CAO Hongxing,HE Huizhong,LIU Haitao,XIA Jun,CAI Xiuhua,SHI Neng.Climate Change in East-Asian Monsoon and Its Time Series Modeling. J. Lake Sci.2003,15(Z1):23-29. DOI:10.18307/2003.sup03
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东亚季风的气候变化及其时间序列模型
曹鸿兴1, 何会中1, 刘海涛2, 夏军3, 蔡秀华1, 施會泛4
1.中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081;2.北京市气象局气候中心, 北京 100089;3.中国科学院地理科学和资源研究所, 北京 100101;4.南京气象学院, 南京 210044
摘要:
本文运用统计方法分析了东亚季风指数的观测序列;同时还揭示了不同时期的东亚季风变化趋势和年代际变化.自1873年以来,东亚季风逐渐减少,同时年代际的变化也十分明显.在1891-1900年间和1971-1980年间,夏季季风指数的十年平均达到极大,另外还出现两个极小值,它们分别出现在1921-1930年和1991-2000年.为了对东亚季风变化进行模拟,我们首先简要地介绍了动力系统的自忆性原理,然后叙述了一个新的时间序列分析方法——基于数据的机制自记忆模型(DAMSM).DAMSM被应用于东亚季风指数研究并且证明了它对东亚季风的拟合及预报能力.
关键词:  东亚季风  时间序列分析  气候变化
DOI:10.18307/2003.sup03
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(40375025)资助
Climate Change in East-Asian Monsoon and Its Time Series Modeling
CAO Hongxing1, HE Huizhong1, LIU Haitao2, XIA Jun3, CAI Xiuhua1, SHI Neng4
1.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, CAS, Beijing 10008l, P. R. China;2.Climate Center, Beijing Bureau of Meteorology, Beijing 100089, P. R. China.;3.Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resource Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, P. R. China;4.Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044, P. R. China
Abstract:
The observed series of the East-Asian monsoon index for 1873 to 2000 are analyzed with statistics; its trends and interannual in different periods are also revealed. The East-Asian monsoon has decreased since 1873; its interdecadal variation is much significant The decadal mean of the summer monsoon index during 1891-1900 was the highest in comparison with that of other decades, while minima occurred in 1921-1930 and again in 1991-2000. In order to model the change in the East-Asian monsoon, first, the self-memory principle of dynamic system is briefed, then the data-based mechanistic self-memory model (DAMSM), which is a new approach of time series analysis, is described. The DAMSM has been applied to the series of (the) East-Asian monsoon index, and demonstrated its ability for fitting and forecasting.
Key words:  East-Asian Monsoon  time series analysis  flood
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