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引用本文:徐影,高学杰,郭振海,赵宗慈,丁一汇.温室效应对未来长江中下游地区温度和降水变化的影响.湖泊科学,2003,15(Z1):30-37. DOI:10.18307/2003.sup04
XU Ying,GAO Xuejie,GUO Zhenhai,ZHAO Zongci,DING Yihui.Impacts of Greenhouse Effects upon the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River. J. Lake Sci.2003,15(Z1):30-37. DOI:10.18307/2003.sup04
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温室效应对未来长江中下游地区温度和降水变化的影响
徐影1, 高学杰1, 郭振海2, 赵宗慈1, 丁一汇1
1.中国气象局国家气候中心, 北京 100081;2.中国科学院大气物理研究所, 北京 100029
摘要:
使用全球海气耦合模式和区域气候模式,对人类活动影响导致的温室气体和气溶胶增加引起的长江中下游地区的气候变化进行了分析研究.全球模式部分使用的是IPCC数据分发中心提供的5个模式模拟结果,包括IS92a中未来温室气体增加(GG)以及温室气体和硫化物气溶胶共同增加(GS)和A2、B2共4种排放情景.分析表明在温室气体增加的情况下,这里未来的地面气温变化与全球和全国一样,都呈增加趋势.以GG和GS为例,GG情景下,这一地区的变暖幅度在21世纪末期达到4.2℃, GS情景下达到3.1℃.但总体来说这里的变暖幅度较全球和中国其它大部分地区小.各个季节中,冬春季的增温幅度大于夏秋季.对降水的分析表明,GG情景下长江中下游地区是中国降水增加较少的地区之一,而在GS情景下,降水将出现微弱的减少.区域气候模式的模拟,在气温变化方面得到的结果和全球模式类似.但降水与全球模式的结果有所差别,主要表现在降水增加的季节分布不同上,模拟结果中降水增加最多的是冬季和夏季(增加值分别为44%和23%),而春秋季的降水将减少.
关键词:  温室效应  气候变化  气候模式  长江流域
DOI:10.18307/2003.sup04
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目-全球气候变化及其对东亚区域气候变化影响的数值模拟(40231004);国家重点基础研宂发展规划项目(Gl999032801)和中国气象局IPCC专项经费联合资助
Impacts of Greenhouse Effects upon the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River
XU Ying,GAO Xuejie,GUO Zhenhai,ZHAO Zongci,DING Yihui
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, P. R. China
Abstract:
Climate changes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River due to greenhouse effects in the 21st century are investigated based on the simulations both by some coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) and a regional climate model (RegCM2). Assement of the models for their simulation to present climate in China show that they performs reasonably well. For example, the spatial correlation coefficients between simulated and observed mean annual surface air temperature can be 0.80℃ and 0.94℃ for the AOGCMs and the RCM; respectively. The AOGCM part is based on the average of the 5 AOGCM results provided by the Data Distribution Center of IPCC. It consists of 4 scenarios, which are greenhouse gas only, and greenhouse gas plus sulfate aerosol scenario of the IS92a, A2, and B2 of the SRES. The results show a general warming in the region in the future, like in the globe and in other parts of China. For example, in the end of the 21 st century in the region, the warming of 4.3℃ under GG and 3.1℃ under GS are simulated. Greater wanning is simulated in winter and spring than in summer and autumn. Similar temperature rise is simulated by the RCM. But both AOGCM and RCM simulated a weaker warming in the region when comparing with that in China and in the Globe. As for the precipitation change, under GG, an increase which is smaller than that averaged in China is simu-lated, while under GS it is a slightly decrease. The annual mean precipitation change simulated by the RCM shows similar increase. But differences are noticed when considering seasonal changes and the spatial distributions. Greater increase is found in winter (44%) and summer (23%) while the precipitation in spring and autumn will decrease, which is in the opposite direction to the AOGCM. The big increase of precipitation in summer may subsequently lead to more floods in the reason. A lot of uncertainties exist in assessing the climate impacts of greenhouse gas emissions. There are uncertainties in the emission scenario in the future and in the climate models, especially when concerning the aerosol effects, etc. The better performance of the RCM in simulating present climate refers that the climate change scenario simulated should be paid more attention, but still many work is needed for a more robust assessment of climate change in the region, as in the other places in China and in the Globe.
Key words:  Greenhouse effects  climate change  numerical climate models  Yangtze River Basin
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