| 引用本文: | 张俊,冯宝飞,牛文静,王乐,徐雨妮,田逸飞,严方家.基于误差分布估计的三峡水库入库洪水概率预报方法.湖泊科学,2023,35(2):722-729. DOI:10.18307/2023.0228 |
| Zhang Jun,Feng Baofei,Niu Wenjing,Wang Le,Xu Yuni,Tian Yifei,Yan Fangjia.Probability forecasting method of Three Gorges Reservoir inflow flood based on error distribution estimation. J. Lake Sci.2023,35(2):722-729. DOI:10.18307/2023.0228 |
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| 基于误差分布估计的三峡水库入库洪水概率预报方法 |
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张俊1, 冯宝飞1, 牛文静1, 王乐1,2, 徐雨妮1, 田逸飞1, 严方家1
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1.长江水利委员会水文局, 武汉 430010;2.武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 武汉 430072
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| 摘要: |
| 准确、及时的入库洪水预报,对三峡水库综合效益的发挥和长江流域水旱灾害防御、水资源利用、流域综合管理等具有重要作用。基于预报误差的最优分布估计和分布函数动态参数假定,提出了一种三峡水库入库洪水概率预报方法,并进行了洪水概率预报业务试验。结果表明:本文所提方法科学可行,计算快捷,使用方便,便于在实时作业预报中应用推广;概率预报结果较确定性预报结果,在水量预报、预警效果等方面均有所改善,1~5 d预见期预报的确定性系数提高0.1%~3.4%,水量误差减少0.1%~4.8%,可为三峡水库实时调度提供更可靠的预报信息;所提出的三峡水库入库洪水概率预报业务化产品,可提供更多风险信息,为三峡水库的科学调度,尤其是洪水资源化利用提供更好的优化决策支撑。 |
| 关键词: 误差分布 分布估计 概率预报 洪水预报 三峡水库 业务预报 |
| DOI：10.18307/2023.0228 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200301)资助。 |
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| Probability forecasting method of Three Gorges Reservoir inflow flood based on error distribution estimation |
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Zhang Jun1, Feng Baofei1, Niu Wenjing1, Wang Le1,2, Xu Yuni1, Tian Yifei1, Yan Fangjia1
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1.Bureau of Hydrology, ChangJiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, P.R.China;2.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, P. R. China
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| Abstract: |
| Accurate and timely inflow flood forecasting plays an important role in the comprehensive benefit of the Three Gorges Reservoir, and the prevention of floods and droughts, the utilization of water resources, the comprehensive management for the Yangtze River basin. Based on the optimal distribution estimation of the prediction error and the assumption of the dynamic parameters for the distribution function, a probability prediction method for the inflow flood of the Three Gorges Reservoir is proposed, and the operational test of the probability prediction of the flood is carried out. The results show that the physical rational of the presented method is clear, and it is easy to be applied and popularized in real-time operation forecast. Compared with the deterministic prediction results, the probability forecast has improved in water volume prediction and early warning effect. For example, the certainty coefficient of forecast in 1-5 d is increased by 0.1%-3.4%, and the water volume error is reduced by 0.1%-4.8%, which can provide more reliable forecast information for the real-time operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The proposed operational product of probability forecast of inflow flood process can provide more risk information, and provide better support for scientific and fine operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir, especially for optimal decision-making of flood resource utilization. |
| Key words: Error distribution distribution estimation probabilistic forecasting flood forecast Three Gorges Reservoir operational forecast |
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