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引用本文:艾泽,常蕊,肖潺,陈鲜艳,张强,李威,李帅,龚文婷.模拟分析揭示三峡水库成库以来的气候效应:局地和近地层,而不是区域.湖泊科学,2023,35(2):709-721. DOI:10.18307/2023.0227
Ai Ze,Chang Rui,Xiao Chan,Chen Xianyan,Zhang Qiang,Li Wei,Li Shuai,Gong Wenting.Simulated climate effect of the Three Gorges Reservoir after its completion:Within surface and local scope instead of regional. J. Lake Sci.2023,35(2):709-721. DOI:10.18307/2023.0227
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模拟分析揭示三峡水库成库以来的气候效应:局地和近地层,而不是区域
艾泽1,2,3, 常蕊1,2, 肖潺2, 陈鲜艳1,2, 张强2, 李威2, 李帅1, 龚文婷1
1.中国长江三峡集团有限公司, 武汉 430010;2.国家气候中心, 北京 100081;3.湖北省气象服务中心, 武汉 430205
摘要:
针对以往三峡水库气候效应数值模拟研究中,水库参数化方案简约及模拟时段未涉及成库以来高水位运行阶段等不足,在中尺度气象模式中,通过扩宽水体面积和抬升水位高度的方式对三峡水库引起的陆面参数变化进行描述,进而采用敏感性数值试验及统计分析等手段,评估了三峡水库成库以来高温干旱(2013年)和低温洪涝(2020年)年景下,关键气象要素对水库运行的响应特征。结果表明:两种典型年景下水库运行均会造成近地层气温降低(0.98~1.27℃)、相对湿度增加(3.9%~5.5%)和风速增大(0.43~0.68 m/s),同时响应强度的日变化导致近地层气温和相对湿度的日较差减小、平均风速的日较差增大;尽管上述变量的变化幅度与该地区气候的自然变率相当,但水库运行对气温和相对湿度的影响范围基本限制于水库周边约2 km,垂直方向则大多低于200 m,对风速的影响范围可扩展至水库周边约12 km,垂直方向延伸至200 m左右,且响应强度均随水平距离和垂直高度的增加而显著减小。尽管数值试验放大了三峡水库的气候效应,但作为典型的河道型水库,三峡水库成库以来的不同气候年景下,水库运行产生的气候效应基本限制在近地层、局地范围内,未对区域气候产生明显影响。
关键词:  三峡水库  成库以来  气候效应  数值模拟
DOI:10.18307/2023.0227
分类号:
基金项目:中国长江三峡集团有限公司项目(0704182)和国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目(72088101)联合资助。
Simulated climate effect of the Three Gorges Reservoir after its completion:Within surface and local scope instead of regional
Ai Ze1,2,3, Chang Rui1,2, Xiao Chan2, Chen Xianyan1,2, Zhang Qiang2, Li Wei2, Li Shuai1, Gong Wenting1
1.China Three Gorges Corporation, Wuhan 430010, P. R. China;2.National Climate Centre of CMA, Beijing 100081, P. R. China;3.Hubei Meteorological Service Center, Wuhan 430205, P. R. China
Abstract:
In view of the shortcomings of the previous numerical simulation research on the climate effect of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), such as the simplicity of the reservoir parameterization and the fact that the simulation period did not involve the reservoir impoundment period, the changes of land surface parameters induced by the TGR were numerically described by increasing the river width and raising the water level in the mesoscale meteorological model. The variation characteristics of meteorological elements after completion of the TGR were analyzed based on two parallel numerical simulations, control run (no TGR) and sensitive run (TGR), during the drought year with high temperature (2013) and the flood year with low temperature (2020). The results show that the operation of TGR under these two typical years both reduce the surface temperature (0.98-1.27℃), increase the relative humidity (3.9%-5.5%) and the wind speed (0.43-0.68 m/s), the diurnal range of near-surface temperature/relative humidity decreases and the diurnal range of wind speed increases with the diurnal variation of the response; Although the aforementioned responses are equivalent to the natural climate variability, the variations of temperature and relative humidity are basically limited to about 2 km around the reservoir, most of which are lower than 200 m in the vertical direction, and the variation of wind speed change extend to about 12 km near the reservoir with up to 200 m in the vertical direction. All of these responses decrease significantly with the increase of horizontal distance and vertical height. Therefore, although the climate effect of the TGR is amplified in our simulation experiment, as a typical river-type reservoir, the climate effect induced by the operation of TGR is basically limited to the surface and local area, and has no obvious influence on the regional climate.
Key words:  Three Gorges Reservoir  completion of the reservoir  climate effect  numerical simulation
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