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引用本文:李颖,张祯,程建华,邹亮华,张庆吉,张敏,龚志军,谢世友,蔡永久.2012—2018年洪泽湖水质时空变化与原因分析.湖泊科学,2021,33(3):715-726. DOI:10.18307/2021.0308
Li Ying,Zhang Zhen,Cheng Jianhua,Zou Lianghua,Zhang Qingji,Zhang Min,Gong Zhijun,Xie Shiyou,Cai Yongjiu.Water quality change and driving forces of Lake Hongze from 2012 to 2018. J. Lake Sci.2021,33(3):715-726. DOI:10.18307/2021.0308
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2012—2018年洪泽湖水质时空变化与原因分析
李颖1,2, 张祯3, 程建华4, 邹亮华2,5, 张庆吉2, 张敏3, 龚志军2, 谢世友1, 蔡永久2
1.西南大学地理科学学院, 重庆 400715;2.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所, 中国科学院流域地理学重点实验室, 南京 210008;3.江苏省洪泽湖水利工程管理处, 淮安 223100;4.江苏省水利勘测设计研究院有限公司, 扬州 225127;5.江西师范大学生命科学学院, 南昌 330027
摘要:
洪泽湖是南水北调东线工程的重要枢纽.为评估水环境长期变化,于2012—2018年开展逐月水质监测.结合水文气象与淮河水质水量数据,分析洪泽湖水质长期变化趋势及空间分异的驱动因素,结果显示:2012—2018年,洪泽湖总氮、总磷多年平均浓度为1.74和0.081 mg/L,分别为Ⅴ类水和Ⅳ类水,透明度均值为0.48 m,下降趋势不显著,而高锰酸盐指数、叶绿素a多年平均浓度分别为4.13和0.008 mg/L,呈显著下降趋势.在空间分布上,过水区总氮、总磷浓度显著高于成子湖、溧河洼;高锰酸盐指数、叶绿素a浓度则相对较低,透明度则是成子湖较高,溧河洼和过水区相近.3个湖区的叶绿素a浓度下降明显,但过水区的高锰酸盐指数呈上升趋势.洪泽湖与淮河水质相关性分析结果显示,洪泽湖总氮、总磷浓度与淮河水质呈强相关性,特别是过水区各个水质指标与淮河水质均有显著的相关性,而成子湖、溧河洼水质与淮河水质相关性较弱.广义可加模型(GAM)显示,过水区的总氮、总磷浓度等参数与淮河营养盐、高锰酸盐指数及悬浮物浓度变化的关系显著,成子湖和溧河洼的水质指标影响因素差异较大,成子湖、过水区的叶绿素a浓度与高锰酸盐指数相关性较强,而溧河洼的叶绿素a浓度与降水、透明度关系显著.相关性和GAM模型表明淮河对于洪泽湖,尤其是对过水区的水质影响极为明显,是洪泽湖维持较高营养水平和水质空间分异的重要原因.尽管不同湖区叶绿素a浓度下降趋势表明洪泽湖营养状态有所降低,但其氮、磷浓度仍维持在较高水平,存在富营养化风险.应持续关注淮河入湖水质变化,削减污染物输入,压缩湖泊围网、圈圩养殖规模,通过加强水污染防治和水域空间管控保障洪泽湖水环境安全.
关键词:  浅水湖泊  淮河流域  富营养化  趋势分析  洪泽湖
DOI:10.18307/2021.0308
分类号:
基金项目:江苏省水利科技项目(2018039,2019005)和中国科学院青年创新促进会项目(2020316)联合资助.
Water quality change and driving forces of Lake Hongze from 2012 to 2018
Li Ying1,2, Zhang Zhen3, Cheng Jianhua4, Zou Lianghua2,5, Zhang Qingji2, Zhang Min3, Gong Zhijun2, Xie Shiyou1, Cai Yongjiu2
1.School of Geography Science, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, P. R. China;2.Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, P. R. China;3.Administrative Office of Hongze Lake Water Conservancy Project, Jiangsu Province, Huaian 223100, P. R. China;4.Jiangsu Surveying and Design Institute of Water Resources Co., Ltd, Yangzhou 225127, P. R. China;5.College of Life Sciences, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330027, P. R. China
Abstract:
Lake Hongze is an important storage lake for the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. To assess the long-term changes in water quality, 16 monitoring sites were deployed based on environmental heterogeneity. Monthly water quality monitoring was carried out from 2012 to 2018 to examine the long-term trend of the water quality of Lake Hongze and the effects of hydrometeorological factors on the changes in nutrients. The results showed that from 2012 to 2018, the average annual concentrations of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and transparency in Lake Hongze were 1.74 mg/L (Grade V), 0.081 mg/L (Grade IV), and 0.48 m, respectively, without significant decline trend. In contrast, the average annual concentrations of permanganate index and chlorophyll-a were 4.13 and 0.008 mg/L, respectively, presenting a significant decrease trend. In terms of spatial patterns, the concentration of total nitrogen and total phosphorus in the flushing area was higher than that of Chengzi Bay and Lihewa Bay; while the permanganate index and chlorophyll-a concentration were relatively lower. The concentration of permanganate index in Chengzi Bay and Lihewa Bay decreased significantly, which was significantly different from the water quality change trend of the flushing area. The concentration of chlorophyll-a in all three regions of the lake decreased significantly. The results of correlation analysis showed that the total nitrogen and total phosphorus in Lake Hongze strongly correlated with the water quality of the Huaihe River, especially in the flushing area. The correlation between the water quality of Lihewa Bay and the water quality of Huaihe River is quite weak. The generalized additive model (GAM) showed that the water quality and suspended solids concentration of the flushing area was significantly correlated to the change of water quality in Huaihe River, and the factors influencing the water quality of Chengzi Bay and Lihewa Bay varied greatly. The relationships between chlorophyll-a and permanganate index in Chengzi Bay and flushing area were relatively strong, while the concentration of chlorophyll-a in Lihewa Bay was significantly related to precipitation and transparency. The correlation and GAM model indicated that the Huaihe River imposed profound effects on the water quality of Lake Hongze, especially in the flushing area, which may be an important driver in maintaining a higher nutrient level and spatial differentiation of water quality in Lake Hongze. The decreasing trend of chlorophyll-a concentration in different regions indicated that the trophic status of Lake Hongze has decreased. Routine monitoring, pollutants reduction, aquaculture control should be implemented to ensure the safety of water quality in Lake Hongze.
Key words:  Shallow lake  Huaihe River Basin  eutrophication  trend analysis  Lake Hongze
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