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引用本文:罗赟,董增川,管西柯,刘玉环,钟敦宇,袁嘉晨.基于Copula函数的太湖流域汛期洪涝灾害危险性分析.湖泊科学,2020,32(1):223-235. DOI:10.18307/2020.0121
LUO Yun,DONG Zengchuan,GUAN Xike,LIU Yuhuan,ZHONG Dunyu,YUAN Jiachen.Flood risk analysis in the Taihu Basin during flood periods based on Copula function. J. Lake Sci.2020,32(1):223-235. DOI:10.18307/2020.0121
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基于Copula函数的太湖流域汛期洪涝灾害危险性分析
罗赟1, 董增川1, 管西柯1, 刘玉环1, 钟敦宇1, 袁嘉晨2
1.河海大学水文水资源学院, 南京 210098;2.湖北省水利水电勘测设计院, 武汉 430064
摘要:
太湖流域位于长江入海口,地处中国沿海经济带和长江沿线内陆经济带的交汇处,是中国高度城镇化地区之一.流域汛期降水受到多重天气系统的影响,不同的天气系统带来时空分布各异的降水,给该地区城镇防洪排涝工作造成了巨大的挑战.本文基于Copula理论对太湖流域汛期洪涝风险进行研究,考虑了因降水主导因素不同所造成的流域洪涝风险的时空差异性.在时间角度,采用降水主导因素发生时间的概率分布,将汛期划分为梅汛期和台汛期;在空间角度,通过Copula函数,对研究区进行聚类划分;在此基础上,根据太湖流域防洪规划,对流域梅汛期和台汛期的洪涝风险进行分析.研究结果表明:①太湖流域的汛期划分为:6月24日-7月21日为梅汛期,7月22日-9月22日为台汛期;②根据各分区降水和太湖水位的联合分布函数拟合效果的优劣,在梅汛期,太湖流域被划分为P-Ⅰ区、P-Ⅱ区和P-Ⅲ区;在台汛期,整个流域的降水作为一个整体,不分区;③到2025年,太湖流域在梅汛期和台汛期出现排涝不利情境的风险概率分别为2.4%和1.1%.本文的研究方法可以为太湖流域设计暴雨的调整、洪水资源的利用以及防洪排涝实时调度的决策提供科学参考.
关键词:  洪涝灾害  汛期分期  梅汛期  台汛期  Copula  风险管理  太湖流域
DOI:10.18307/2020.0121
分类号:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1508200)和江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(KYZZ15_0136)联合资助.
Flood risk analysis in the Taihu Basin during flood periods based on Copula function
LUO Yun1, DONG Zengchuan1, GUAN Xike1, LIU Yuhuan1, ZHONG Dunyu1, YUAN Jiachen2
1.College of Hydrology and Water Resource, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, P. R. China;2.Hubei Provincial Water Resources and Hydropower Planning Survey and Design Institute, Wuhan 430064, P. R. China
Abstract:
The Taihu Basin is located at the estuary of the Yangtze River, belonging to the intersection of China coastal economic belt and the inland economic belt along the Yangtze River. It is one of China's highly urbanized areas. Under the influence of continental polar air masses, maritime tropical air masses and tropical cyclones, the types of precipitation in the Taihu Basin are divided into plum rain and typhoon rain. Different weather systems lead to the different heterogeneous precipitation, which brings great challenges to flood management in the basin. Taking the spatial and temporal differences of flood risk caused by different weather systems into consideration, this paper analyzed the flood risk based on Copula theory. In terms of time, the probability distribution of the precipitation dominant factors was used to divide the flood period into the plum rain period and the typhoon period. In terms of space, we clustered the study areas in the plum rain period and the typhoon period respectively by the Archimedean copula function. Finally, the flood disaster risk during the plum rain period and the typhoon period was analyzed. The results indicate that the flood period of the Taihu Basin is divided into the plum rain period (June 24 to July 21) and the typhoon period (July 22 to September 22). According to the joint distribution of sub-region precipitation and the Taihu Lake water level, the Taihu Basin is divided into three sub-regions (P-Ⅰ sub-region, P-Ⅱ sub-region and P-Ⅲ sub-region) in the plum rain period, while the Taihu Basin as a whole for flood risk analysis in the typhoon period. In the future, the probability of the drainage adverse in the Taihu Basin during the plum rain periods and the typhoon period is 2.4% and 1.1%, respectively. It is of great significance for the Taihu Basin to adjust the schemes of design storm and utilize flood resource and make the decision of real-time scheduling for flood control and drainage.
Key words:  Flood disaster  flood period staging  plum rain period  typhoon period  Copula  risk analysis  Taihu Basin
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