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引用本文:王容,李相虎,薛晨阳,张丹.1960-2012年鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件时空演变特征.湖泊科学,2020,32(1):207-222. DOI:10.18307/2020.0120
WANG Rong,LI Xianghu,XUE Chenyang,ZHANG Dan.Spatio-temporal variations of the drought-flood abrupt alternation events in the Lake Poyang Basin from 1960 to 2012. J. Lake Sci.2020,32(1):207-222. DOI:10.18307/2020.0120
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1960-2012年鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件时空演变特征
王容1,2, 李相虎1,2, 薛晨阳1,2, 张丹1
1.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所, 中国科学院流域地理学重点实验室, 南京 210008;2.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
摘要:
基于鄱阳湖流域五河7个主要入湖控制站1960-2012年的实测径流资料,通过短周期旱涝急转指数,结合TFPW-MK趋势检验法及集合经验模态分解法,分析了鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件的时空分布、演变趋势、强度及周期变化等,并探讨了旱涝急转指数的不确定性及旱涝急转事件的成因.结果表明:鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件主要分布在3-10月,其中3-6月主要表现为“旱转涝”,7-10月主要表现为“涝转旱”,且不同年代间存在一定的时空差异;五河以轻度旱涝急转事件为主,重度旱涝急转事件发生频率较低,主要发生在抚河、信江和饶河流域,且多以“涝转旱”事件为主;在年代际上,鄱阳湖流域旱涝急转事件在1990s发生的频率最高,在2000s最低.同时,除饶河外,鄱阳湖流域年最强“涝转旱”事件的发生强度呈减弱趋势,而年最强“旱转涝”事件的发生强度在赣江和修水北支有减弱趋势,在饶河和修水南支有增强趋势.五河旱涝急转的变化存在2个特征时间尺度,分别为1 a和21~35 a,而年最强旱涝急转事件的发生强度具有3 a左右的周期变化特征.这些变化与流域降水的不均匀性及强烈的人类活动等有关.本研究结果有助于全面系统认识鄱阳湖流域在全球变暖背景下极端水文事件的发生机制和变化规律,可为鄱阳湖区防汛抗旱减灾提供重要的科学依据.
关键词:  鄱阳湖流域  径流  旱涝急转  时空分布  周期
DOI:10.18307/2020.0120
分类号:
基金项目:中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项(XDA23040202)和国家自然科学基金项目(41571023,41871093)联合资助.
Spatio-temporal variations of the drought-flood abrupt alternation events in the Lake Poyang Basin from 1960 to 2012
WANG Rong1,2, LI Xianghu1,2, XUE Chenyang1,2, ZHANG Dan1
1.Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, P. R. China;2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P. R. China
Abstract:
Based on the observed daily runoff data from 7 hydrological stations covering 1960 to 2012 in the Lake Poyang Basin, this study identified and analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of the drought-flood abrupt alternation events (DFAAE) by applying the short drought-flood abrupt alternation index (SDFI), TFPW-MK trend test and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD). Further, the uncertainty of SDFI and the causes of DFAAE were also explored. The results revealed that DFAAE in Lake Poyang Basin generally occurred during March and October. Among these, the drought-to-flood events of Lake Poyang Basin mainly occurred during March and June, while the flood-to-drought events mainly occurred during July and October, with spatiotemporal difference existed between different ages. Mild DFAAE was the dominated events in the Lake Poyang Basin, while extreme DFAAE occurred less frequently. The extreme DFAAE was mainly concentrated in Fuhe River, Xinjiang River, and Raohe River sub-basins. Most of them were flood-to-drought events. The occurrence frequency of DFAAE was the highest in the 1990s and the lowest in 2000s. The TFPW-MK trend test of the minimum and maximum values of SDFI indicated there was a long-term decreasing trend in the intensity of the strongest flood-to-drought events of in the catchment except for Raohe River. Meanwhile, a decreasing trend for the occurrence intensity of the strongest drought-to-flood events was also found in Ganjiang River and the northern Xiushui River Basins. Relatively, an increasing trend occurred in Raihe River and the southern Xiushui River Basins. SDFI in the Lake Poyang Basin had two cycles which were 1 year and 21-35 years. In addition, there was a 3-year cycle in the occurrence intensity of the strongest DFAAE. The temporal and spatial variations of DFAAE were affected by spatial heterogeneity of precipitation and the strong human activities, etc. This study facilitates us to further understand the mechanism and change patterns of the extreme drought and flood events in the Lake Poyang Basin under the background of climate change. It also provides an important scientific basis for flood control, drought relief and disaster reduction in the Lake Poyang Basin.
Key words:  Lake Poyang Basin  runoff  drought-flood abrupt alternation  spatiotemporal patterns  cycle
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