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引用本文:林永钦,傅春,危鼎.鄱阳湖退田还湖区避洪农业模式的探讨.湖泊科学,2007,19(6):670-676. DOI:10.18307/2007.0608
LIN Yongqin,FU Chun,Wei Ding.Research on the patterns of flood avoiding agriculture in wetland restoration area in bake Poyaag. J. Lake Sci.2007,19(6):670-676. DOI:10.18307/2007.0608
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鄱阳湖退田还湖区避洪农业模式的探讨
林永钦1, 傅春1,2, 危鼎3
1.南昌大学管理科学与工程系, 南昌 330031;2.南昌大学中国中部经济发展研究中心, 南昌 330047;3.河海大学土木学院, 南京 210098
摘要:
以洪灾风险为主要风险确定了鄱阳湖退田还湖区内各种避洪农业模式的风险度量指标,并依此对各种可能模式的效益与风险作了分析.在此基础上,以收益最大化和风险最小化为目标函数,建立了退田还湖区综合避洪农业模式的多目标优化模型,采用加权法求出非劣解,并通过收益—风险的综合分析,为退田还湖区避洪农业发展的风险决策提供客观依据.
关键词:  退田还湖区  避洪农业模式  收益—风险分析  多目标优化  鄱阳湖
DOI:10.18307/2007.0608
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助(40361003)项目.
Research on the patterns of flood avoiding agriculture in wetland restoration area in bake Poyaag
LIN Yongqin1, FU Chun1,2, Wei Ding3
1.Department of Management Science and Engineering, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, P. R. China;2.Research Center for Central China Economic Development, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330047, P. R. China;3.School of Civil Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, P. R. China
Abstract:
Based on hydrological risk, the risk measurement indicators for various flood avoiding agriculturalterns are introduced in wetland restoration area in Lake Poyang. According to the values of these indicators,the benefit and risk of various flood avoiding agricultun patterns are analyzed.And then using benefit maximization and risk minimization as objective functions, a multiobjective planning model of integrated flood avoiding economic patterns is constructed.Several typical noninferior solutions to the model are generated by applying weighting method.The tradeoff' analysis of benefit and risk for different noninferior solutions, which indicates that planting vegetajectivehigh benef t and low risk pattern but surface aquaculture is a high benefit and risk pattern, may provide obfoundation for risk decision making of flood avoiding agriculture in the wetland restoration area.
Key words:  Wetland restoration area  flood avoiding agricultural pattern  benefit and risk analysis  multiobjective optimization  Lake Poyang
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