| 摘要: |
| 为揭示岷沱江蓝绿水对气候和土地利用变化两类驱动因子的敏感性差异，提出管控与适应性措施，定量评估蓝绿水资源的时空演变及其对气候与土地利用变化的响应。基于SWAT（Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT）和FLUS模型（Future Land-Use Simulation, FLUS），结合CMIP6（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, CMIP6）气候数据，分析1981-2021年岷沱江流域蓝绿水时空演变，并预测至2100年动态变化。研究表明：①1981—2021年，岷沱江流域以蓝水为主，约占水资源总量的63.2%，气候变化是蓝绿水变化的核心驱动因素，气候变化对蓝绿水变化的贡献率分别为79.12%和63.18%；②1990—2020年，农业用地与草地分别减少4.0%和2.1%，城镇用地扩张了138%，显著减少农业用地与草地的面积，加剧水资源空间失衡。预估未来2040年城镇用地再扩张135%，将进一步压缩草地与农业用地空间，城镇用地扩张区域集中在流域东部成都平原，加剧人口密集区的水资源短缺风险；③在未来情景下，流域降水量将上升1.43-1.80 mm/a，气温升高0.025-0.042℃/a，绿水量将显著增加0.35-1.02 mm/a，而蓝水量在2050年前下降后转为波动增长。在4种共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways，SSPs）下，以传统化石燃料为主的路径（SSP5-8.5）蓝绿水变化最为显著，控制城镇扩张并优先实施可持续发展路径（SSP1-2.6）可有效缓解水资源压力；④空间分布上，未来蓝水集中于流域西南部，绿水高值区向东南部转移，东部的成都平原因人口密集且受高温影响，面临水资源短缺与极端灾害风险倍增。研究结果为岷沱江流域制定适应性水资源管理策略和应对气候变化提供了科学依据。 |
| 关键词: 土地利用 气候变化 蓝绿水 SWAT模型 岷沱江流域 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:四川省教育厅“农村水安全”工程研究中心项目 |
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| Response of Blue and Green Water in the Minjiang-Tuojiang River Basin to Climate and Land Use Changes |
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wangyuxuan1, Ni Fuquan2, Deng Yu2, Ren Huazhun, Wu Mingyan3, Jiang Nan3, Zhu Mengyu3, Yue Ziying3, Wen Wei3
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1.Sichuan Agricultural University, College of Hydraulic Engineering;2.Sichuan Agricultural University;3.四川农业大学水利水电学院
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| Abstract: |
| This study quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics of blue and green water resources in the Min-Tuo River Basin and disentangles their differential sensitivities to climate and land-use changes, thereby proposing context-specific management strategies and adaptive pathways for sustainable water governance.Utilizing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and the Future Land-Use Simulation (FLUS) model, combined with climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6),we analyzed historical changes (1981–2021) and projected future dynamics of blue and green water up to 2100. Key findings include:(1)From 1981 to 2021, the Min-Tuo River Basin was dominated by blue water, accounting for 63.2% of the total water resources. Climate change served as the core driving factor for variations in blue and green water, with contribution rates of 79.12% and 63.29%, respectively.(2)Between 1990 and 2020, cultivated land and grassland decreased by 4.0% and 2.1% , respectively, while urban land expanded by 138% , significantly reducing agricultural and grassland areas and exacerbating spatial imbalances in water resources.By 2040, urban land is projected to further expand by 135% , further compressing the spatial extent of grassland and cultivated land. This expansion will concentrate in the Chengdu Plain?in the eastern part of the basin, exacerbating water scarcity risks in densely populated areas.(3)Future climate trends indicate a precipitation increase of 1.43-1.80 mm/a,temperature rise of 0.025-0.042℃/a,Green water will significantly increase by 0.35-1.02 mm/a, while blue water decreases until 2050 before rebounding. Among the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), the fossil fuel-dominated pathway (SSP5-8.5) exhibits the most pronounced changes in blue and green water, whereas curbing urban expansion and prioritizing sustainable development (SSP1-2.6) could effectively alleviate water resource pressure.(4)blue water concentrates in the southwestern basin, while green water hotspots shift southeastward. The Chengdu Plain faces heightened risks of water scarcity and extreme events due to population density and elevated temperatures.This study provides a scientific basis for adaptive water management strategies in the Min-Tuo River Basin under climate and land-use pressures. |
| Key words: Land use climate change blue and green water SWAT model Min-Tuo River Basin |
