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引用本文:范宏翔,徐力刚,朱华,鲁照,曹宇贤,吴亚坤,姜加虎.气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖水龄影响的定量区分.湖泊科学,2021,33(4):1175-1187. DOI:10.18307/2021.0419
Fan Hongxiang,Xu Ligang,Zhu Hua,Lu Zhao,Cao Yuxian,Wu Yakun,Jiang Jiahu.Distinguishing the relative impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on variation of water age in the Lake Poyang. J. Lake Sci.2021,33(4):1175-1187. DOI:10.18307/2021.0419
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气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖水龄影响的定量区分
范宏翔1, 徐力刚1,2, 朱华1,3, 鲁照1,4, 曹宇贤1,3, 吴亚坤1,4, 姜加虎1
1.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所, 中国科学院流域地理学重点实验室, 南京 210008;2.中国长江三峡集团有限公司长江生态环境工程研究中心, 北京 100038;3.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;4.安徽工业大学能源与环境学院, 马鞍山 243000
摘要:
在气候变化和人类活动的双重影响下,湖泊内部的水动力条件正发生重大的变化,进而影响到湖泊水环境的变化.水龄是颗粒物从入口传输到指定点的时间,可以定量反映水体的运动和交换程度以及滞留情况.如何定量区分人类活动与气候变化对水龄的影响程度,对湖泊水资源科学管理和水环境的治理有着重要的科学意义.本文耦合了深度学习网络和传统二维水动力模型,通过引入基准期概念,定量区分了气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖湖区水龄变化的贡献程度.结果表明:(1)本文构建的鄱阳湖流域降雨-径流和鄱阳湖湖区二维水动力耦合模型,能够较好地反映鄱阳湖湖区水量交换及流域产流过程,其纳西效率系数分别达到了0.96和0.90以上;(2)鄱阳湖湖区水龄的空间差异显著,东部湖区和南部湖区尾闾水龄平均为228.01 d,而大部分通江水体水龄较小,平均为24.21 d;(3)在气候变化的影响下,鄱阳湖年均有2054 km2的水体水龄呈现减少的趋势,减小幅度为30 d左右,而在人类活动的影响下,在涨水期和丰水期有约58%的湖区水龄呈现上升趋势,而在枯水期和退水期,平均有82%的水体水龄呈现下降趋势.研究结果能够为鄱阳湖水资源管理和水环境治理提供技术支撑,同时也为定量区分人类活动和气候变化对湖泊水动力的影响机制研究提供了一种新思路和视角.
关键词:  EFDC模型  气候变化  人类活动  鄱阳湖  水龄
DOI:10.18307/2021.0419
分类号:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFE0206400,2018YFC0407606)、国家自然科学基金项目(42001109,41971137)、江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20201102)、中国长江三峡集团有限公司项目(201903145)、中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所引进人才启动项目(NIGLAS2019QD005)、中国科学院流域地理学重点实验室开放基金项目(WSGS2020003)和四川省教育厅课题(17ZB0399)联合资助.
Distinguishing the relative impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on variation of water age in the Lake Poyang
Fan Hongxiang1, Xu Ligang1,2, Zhu Hua1,3, Lu Zhao1,4, Cao Yuxian1,3, Wu Yakun1,4, Jiang Jiahu1
1.Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, P. R. China;2.China Three Gorges Corporation, Eco-Environmental Engineering Research Center, Beijing 100038, P. R. China;3.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P. R. China;4.School of Energy and Environment, Anhui University of Technology, Maanshan 243000, P. R. China
Abstract:
The hydrodynamics inside a lake suffers great shifts due to the combined impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities, which in turn influences the water environment in the lake. Distinguish the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on water age, which indicates the flow patterns and water exchange rates, is of great significance to watershed management. This study performs a quantitative attribution analysis by coupling the environmental fluid dynamics code(EFDC) and the LSTM model. Results showed that the model used in this study can accurately simulate the water level and runoff dynamics, with the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency over 0.96 and 0.90, respectively. (2) There exits great spatial heterogeneity of the water age, with average water age of 228.01 and 24.21 days in the floodplains and main channel, respectively. (3) The water age decreased about 30 days for over 2054 km2 due to climate change, whereas anthropogenic activities increase the water age in 58% lake area in the dry period and shorten the water age in 82% lake area in the flood period. The results can provide scientific basis and theoretical guidance for water resources management in Lake Poyang Basin.
Key words:  Environmental fluid dynamics code (EFDC)  climate change  human activities  Lake Poyang  water age
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