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引用本文:吴浩云,贾更华,徐彬,邵嫣婷,赵晓晴.1980年以来太湖总磷变化特征及其驱动因子分析.湖泊科学,2021,33(4):974-991. DOI:10.18307/2021.0402
Wu Haoyun,Jia Genghua,Xu Bin,Shao Yanting,Zhao Xiaoqing.Analysis of variation and driving factors of total phosphorus in Lake Taihu, 1980-2020. J. Lake Sci.2021,33(4):974-991. DOI:10.18307/2021.0402
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1980年以来太湖总磷变化特征及其驱动因子分析
吴浩云1, 贾更华1, 徐彬2, 邵嫣婷1, 赵晓晴1
1.水利部太湖流域管理局, 上海 200434;2.太湖流域水环境监测中心, 无锡 214131
摘要:
磷是湖泊生态系统物质和能量循环的重要组成部分,是湖泊富营养化防治的重要控制性指标.为分析太湖富营养化与人类活动的关系,掌握总磷(TP)的时空变化规律及驱动因子,本文收集整理了1980—2020年太湖TP浓度数据并分析了TP的时序、时空和年内变化特征.结果表明,1980s经济社会快速发展之初,伴随着工业和三产用水量激增,废污水排放量和入湖负荷大增,1985—1995年太湖TP浓度急剧升高.随着治理与保护措施的实施,到1995年达到峰值后逐步走低,2009年后进入了窄幅波动期.从空间上看,不同时段TP浓度分布格局较好地反映了入湖污染物的输入分布.通过分时段对比分析可能影响太湖TP浓度变化的驱动因子,分别讨论了经济社会发展、用水量、废污水排放量,入湖水量、入湖河流TP浓度、入湖TP负荷,蓝藻水华、水温,高等水生植物,底泥释放,太湖换水周期变化等.结果表明,近10年来入湖TP负荷增加,蓝藻水华强度加大,水温升高,高等水生植物面积减少,这些因素会导致太湖TP浓度上升.2008—2019年净入湖TP负荷比1998—2007年增加了33.9%,而近10年太湖换水周期缩短了17.7%,在一定程度上抵消了影响太湖TP浓度升高的驱动因子的不利影响,太湖TP浓度不升反降.为此建议在新一轮太湖治理中积极开展控源截污、节水减排、水资源调控、高等水生植被恢复、重点污染湖区清淤疏浚等针对性措施以期获得更好的太湖TP浓度控制效果.
关键词:  太湖  富营养化  总磷  蓝藻  水生态
DOI:10.18307/2021.0402
分类号:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0407900)资助.
Analysis of variation and driving factors of total phosphorus in Lake Taihu, 1980-2020
Wu Haoyun1, Jia Genghua1, Xu Bin2, Shao Yanting1, Zhao Xiaoqing1
1.Taihu Basin Authority of Ministry of Water Resources, Shanghai 200434, P. R. China;2.Taihu Basin Hydrology & Water Resources Monitoring Center, Wuxi 214131, P. R. China
Abstract:
As an important component of the material and energy cycle of lake ecosystem, phosphorus is commonly used as an important control index of lake eutrophication. To probe into the relationship between eutrophication and human activities in Lake Taihu, and to grasp the spatiotemporal variation of total phosphorus (TP) concentration and its driving factors, this paper collected the data of TP concentration in Lake Taihu (1980-2020) from Taihu Basin Authority, and analyzed its spatiotemporal and annual variations characters. The results show that at the beginning of rapid economic and social development in the 1980s, wastewater discharge and the load into Lake Taihu increased accordingly with the rapid development of consumption of industrial and tertiary production. As a result, the TP concentration of Lake Taihu grew sharply from 1985 to 1995, reached a peak in 1995, then declined gradually with the incessant implementation of control and protection measures, and finally entered narrow fluctuation after 2009. The spatial distribution of TP concentration in different periods reflected pollutants inputs into Lake Taihu. The driving factors that may affect TP variations in Lake Taihu in 1980-2020 were further discussed, i.e. the impacts of wastewater discharge and water yields for economic and social development, TP concentrations within inflow rivers, external TP load, cyanobacteria bloom, water temperature, the changes of macrophytes area, sediment release, residence time etc. The results indicated that the increases of TP load, cyanobacterial blooms and water temperature, and the shrinkage of macrophyte area are the main factors causing TP concentration increase in Lake Taihu in recent 10 years. Statistics revealed that during 2008-2019, the net TP load of Lake Taihu increased by 33.9% as compared with that of 1998-2007. Moreover, the residence time of whole Lake Taihu shortened by 17.7% in the past 10 years, which probably counteracted the adverse effects affecting the TP concentration increase in Lake Taihu. Therefore, targeted measures such as source control and pollution intermission, water resource saving and emission reduction, water resources regulation, ecological restoration and dredging of contaminated area should be actively carried out in the near future governance in order to achieve better TP concentration control effect in Lake Taihu.
Key words:  Lake Taihu  eutrophication  total phosphorus  cyanobacterial blooms  water ecology
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