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引用本文:孙鹏,孙玉燕,张强,姚蕊,温庆志,王友贞,蒋尚明.淮河流域洪水极值非平稳性特征.湖泊科学,2018,30(4):1123-1137. DOI:10.18307/2018.0424
SUN Peng,SUN Yuyan,ZHANG Qiang,YAO Rui,WEN Qingzhi,Wang Youzhen,JIANG Shangming.Evaluation on non-stationarity assumption of annual maximum peak flows during 1956-2016 in the Huaihe River Basin. J. Lake Sci.2018,30(4):1123-1137. DOI:10.18307/2018.0424
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淮河流域洪水极值非平稳性特征
孙鹏1,2, 孙玉燕1,3,4, 张强4,5, 姚蕊1,3, 温庆志1,3, 王友贞2, 蒋尚明2
1.安徽师范大学地理与旅游学院, 芜湖 241002;2.安徽省水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院, 水利水资源安徽省重点实验室, 蚌埠 233000;3.自然灾害过程与防控研究安徽省省级重点实验室, 芜湖 241002;4.北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室, 北京 100875;5.北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875
摘要:
基于淮河流域9个水文站的月径流量数据,采用Pettitt非参数检验法、GAMLSS模型与洪水频率分析模型等方法,揭示了淮河中上游洪水频率的演变规律,分析基于平稳性和非平稳性条件下的洪水发生强度及洪涝灾害所带来的影响.研究发现:潢川、横排头和蚌埠站点未发生明显变异,其余6个站点发生均值或方差变异,变异时间主要集中在2000年左右.淮河流域的最优拟合分布函数是Weibull;班台、蒋家集和横排头站适宜于非平稳性模型,其余站点选择平稳性模型.各站点非平稳性条件下10年和20年一遇设计流量值与平稳性条件下皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布设计流量值相差不大,但30年一遇、50年一遇和100年一遇的设计流量相差逐渐变大.横排头站和蚌埠站洪水放大因子随着时间增加呈上升趋势且大于1,百年一遇重现期不足80年.各站点年最大洪峰流量与淮河流域、安徽省水灾面积通过了95%或99%的显著性检验.
关键词:  非平稳性  GAMLSS模型  洪水放大因子  重现期  淮河流域
DOI:10.18307/2018.0424
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41601023,41771536)、国家杰出青年科学基金项目(51425903)、地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目(2017-KF-04)、中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放基金项目(IWHR-SKL-201720)和安徽省自然科学基金项目(1808085QD117)联合资助.
Evaluation on non-stationarity assumption of annual maximum peak flows during 1956-2016 in the Huaihe River Basin
SUN Peng1,2, SUN Yuyan1,3,4, ZHANG Qiang4,5, YAO Rui1,3, WEN Qingzhi1,3, Wang Youzhen2, JIANG Shangming2
1.School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, P. R. China;2.Key Laboratory of Water Conservancy and Water Resources of Anhui Province, Water Resources Research Institute of Anhui Province and Huaihe River China, Bengbu 233000, P. R. China;3.Anhui Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Process and Prevention, Wuhu 241002, P. R. China;4.Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, P. R. China;5.State Key Laboratory of Surface Process and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, P. R. China
Abstract:
Based on the monthly runoff data of 9 hydrological stations in the Huaihe River Basin from 1956 to 2016, Pettitt nonparametric test, GAMLSS model and flood frequency analysis model were used to reveal the variation of flood frequency in the middle and upper reaches of the Huaihe River. Sexual and non-stationary conditions under the conditions of flood intensity and floods caused by the impact. The results showed that:Huangchuan, Hengpaitou and Bengbu Stations did not change significantly, the other six stations of the mean or variance variation, variation time is mainly concentrated in 2000 or so. The optimal fitting distribution function of Huaihe River Basin is Weibull, followed by Lognormal distribution. The non-stationary model of Bantai, Jiangjiaji and Hengpaitou Stations were selected, and the other six stations choose the stationary model. While the optimal fitting function based on GAMLSS model has good fitting effect. The divergence curves of the Hengpaitou Station and the Jiangjiaji Station in the nonstationary station show a fluctuating trend with the time series. The site distribution of the station is 25% and 75%, and the actual distribution is not very reasonable. The rest of the site stability of the overall distribution of the site is more reasonable. The design value of the Pearson type Ⅲ distribution design under the condition of 10 years and 20 years of design flow rate and stationary conditions is not very different, but in 30 years, 50 years and 100 years the difference between the design flow of a gradual increase. County, Wangjiaba, Lutaizi and Bengbu Stations design flow value of more than 10000 m3/s. flooding station and Bengbu Station flood amplification factor increases with time and is greater than 1, a hundred years in the event of less than 80 years. Huangchuan Station, Wangjiaba Station and Fuyang Station flood amplification factor are less than 1, and the 100-year re-emergence period will be more than 300 years. The maximum annual peak flow of each station is highly correlated with the Huaihe River Basin and the flood area in Anhui Province, and basically has passed the 95% or 99% significance test.
Key words:  Nonstationarity  GAMLSS model  flooding factor  reproduction period  Huaihe River Basin
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