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引用本文:郭娅,于革.长江中下游典型湖泊营养盐历史变化模拟.湖泊科学,2016,28(4):875-886. DOI:10.18307/2016.0422
GUO Ya,YU Ge.Simulations on historical nutrient changes of typical lakes in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, China. J. Lake Sci.2016,28(4):875-886. DOI:10.18307/2016.0422
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长江中下游典型湖泊营养盐历史变化模拟
郭娅, 于革
中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与环境国家重点实验室, 南京 210008
摘要:
湖泊营养盐变化在自然条件下受到气候水文因素控制,同时受到湖泊生态系统生物群落作用和反馈. 作为动力机制探讨,本文试图基于水文和生态动力学方法,分别构建气候-流域水文作用于湖泊营养盐的外源模式和湖泊生物群落作用于湖泊营养盐的內源模式. 针对长江中下游典型湖泊,经过控制实验和率定,发现营养盐模拟与观测数据在时间序列上达到90%百分位的正相关,因此用来模拟16401840 A.D.期间的营养盐演变历史. 研究表明:(1)模拟的湖泊营养盐变化与沉积钻孔揭示的历史营养盐变化基本一致,沉积记录与模式模拟的7个湖泊的营养盐变化均显著相关;(2)气候因素是湖泊营养盐历史演变的主控因子,来自于湖泊生物群落的反馈作用贡献约占40%;(3)在温度和降水因子的驱动下,湖泊营养盐历史变化主要受降水控制,在极端干旱时期,60%的营养盐变化同步响应于降水变化. 同时,面积在400 km2以下的湖泊营养盐对气候变化的响应比2000 km2以上的大湖更为敏感. 研究结果对长江中下游湖泊营养状态的长期变化机理认识和趋势控制提供科学依据.
关键词:  气候驱动  湖泊生态系统  生物量  模拟  总磷  长期变化
DOI:10.18307/2016.0422
分类号:
基金项目:科技部全球变化重大科学研究计划(2012CB956103)和中国科学院创新团队国际合作伙伴计划项目(KZZD-EW-TZ-08)联合资助.
Simulations on historical nutrient changes of typical lakes in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, China
GUO Ya, YU Ge
State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, P.R.China
Abstract:
The natural process of lake trophic status is controlled by both climatic-hydrological factors and ecosystem interactions. In order to recognize the response mechanism of lake nutrients to the multiple factors, 2 models were designed to simulate the lake nutrient changes over 1640-1840 A.D. in some lakes in the Yangtze floodplain. One was an exogenous-forced model with external driving forces from climate and catchment hydrological changes; the other was an endogenous-forced model with internal driving forces from the biological interactions within the lake ecosystem. After approval test and calibration, the simulation results by the 2 models had significant positive relationships with the observational records in 90th percentile, indicating robust simulation on the historical nutrient changes in 1640-1840 A.D. Results showed that (1) the simulated total phosphorus series by the combined exogenous-and endogenous-forced model were consistent with the reconstructed total phosphorus series from sediment cores in the 7 lakes in the Yangtze floodplain; (2) climate change was the primary factor for the long-term lake nutrient changes, whereas the feedback effects from lake ecosystem accounted for 40% of the nutrient changes; (3) the long-term changes of lake nutrients were significantly related with precipitation with 60% of the historical nutrient changes in synchronous response to precipitation changes. In addition, the responses of TP variations in the lakes smaller than 400 km2 were more sensitive to climate changes than that in the large lakes over 2000 km2.
Key words:  Climate change  lake ecosystem  biomass  simulation  total phosphorus  long-term
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