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引用本文:孙鹏,张强,涂新军,江涛.基于马尔科夫链模型的鄱阳湖流域水文气象干旱研究.湖泊科学,2015,27(6):1177-1186. DOI:10.18307/2015.0624
SUN Peng,ZHANG Qiang,TU Xinjun,JIANG Tao.Changing properties of meteor-hydrological droughts of the Lake Poyang Basin using the Markov model. J. Lake Sci.2015,27(6):1177-1186. DOI:10.18307/2015.0624
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基于马尔科夫链模型的鄱阳湖流域水文气象干旱研究
孙鹏1,2, 张强2,3,4, 涂新军2,3,4, 江涛2,3,4
1.安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院, 芜湖 241003;2.中山大学水资源与环境系, 广州 510275;3.中山大学华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室, 广州 510275;4.江西师范大学鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室, 南昌 330022
摘要:
基于气象和水文干旱的二维变量干旱状态基础上,通过一阶马尔科夫链模型对二维变量干旱状态进行频率、重现期和历时分析,建立水文气象干旱指数,从干旱灾害形成、演变和持续3方面对干旱灾害进行研究,同时预测未来6个月非水文干旱到水文干旱的概率. 结果表明:(1)修河流域在干旱形成中危害大,抚河流域和修河流域在干旱演变中危害大,赣江流域和饶河流域在干旱持续中危害大;(2)鄱阳湖流域状态4(气象、水文干旱)发生的频率最高,为0.30,连续湿润或者干旱的概率最大,湿润状态(状态2)与水文干旱(状态4、状态5(气象湿润、水文干旱))的相互转移概率最低;(3)在长期干旱预测中,鄱阳湖流域从状态2转到状态4和状态5的平均概率为0.11,属最低,而状态1(气象、水文无旱)和状态3(气象干旱、水文湿润)到达状态4的概率为0.23,发生概率最大. 修河流域在非水文干旱状态下未来发生气象、水文干旱状态的平均概率为0.28,是“五河”中最高的,而赣江流域在正常或者湿润状态下未来发生气象、水文干旱的概率最低,为0.18,该研究对于鄱阳湖流域水文气象干旱的抗旱减灾具有重要理论与现实意义.
关键词:  水文气象干旱指数  干旱状态转移  干旱预测  马尔科夫链模型  鄱阳湖流域
DOI:10.18307/2015.0624
分类号:
基金项目:鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室主任开放基金项目(ZK2013006)、国家杰出青年科学基金项目(51425903)和安徽师范大学博士科研启动金项目和安徽省自然科学基金项目(1408085MKL23)联合资助.
Changing properties of meteor-hydrological droughts of the Lake Poyang Basin using the Markov model
SUN Peng1,2, ZHANG Qiang2,3,4, TU Xinjun2,3,4, JIANG Tao2,3,4
1.College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241003, P.R.China;2.Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, P.R.China;3.Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, P.R.China;4.Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, P.R.China
Abstract:
Combined analysis of precipitation and water scarcity was done with using SPI and SRI indices. Time series of the hydro-meteorological conditions were investigated as discrete state, discrete-time Markov chain with aim to explore transition between drought conditions in terms of frequency, residence time, and interim period from one drought condition to another. Besides, prediction of drought conditions were also conducted. The results indicate that: (1) The drought hazards do have its massive negative impacts during its initial conditions in the Xiuhe River basin; and manifest its negative impacts during its developing conditions of the droughts in the Fuhe and Xiuhe River basins; in the Ganjiang and Raohe River basins, however, the droughts have its greatest impacts during lasting time intervals; (2) The occurrence probability of meteor-hydrological droughts of the Poyang Lake is characterized by continuing wet or dry conditions. Transition between meteorological wetness to hydrological drought is subject to lower probability in the Lake Poyang Basin; (3) The prediction of droughts indicates that the transitional probability from the 2nd condition to hydrological drought is the lowest and the transitional probability from the 1st (or 3rd) condition to the 4th condition is the largest. The transitional probability from the 1st, 2nd and 3rd condition to hydrological drought is the lowest in Xiuhe River Basin. However, The transitional probability from the 1st and 2nd condition to hydrological drought is the largest in Ganjiang River Basin The results of this study will be of great merits in terms of human mitigation to droughts in a changing environment.
Key words:  Meteor-hydrological drought index  transition of drought conditions  drought prediction  Markov Model  Lake Poyang Basin
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