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引用本文:后希康,高伟,徐鹏,罗永龙,韦亚南,营娜,周丰.流域社会经济发展对山东省东平湖水环境影响评估及优化调控.湖泊科学,2014,26(2):313-321. DOI:10.18307/2014.0219
HOU Xikang,GAO Wei,XU Peng,LUO Yonglong,WEI Yanan,YING Na,ZHOU Feng.Impacts of watershed socio-economic development on Lake Dongping ecosystems of Shandong Province: Assessment and joint-mitigation. J. Lake Sci.2014,26(2):313-321. DOI:10.18307/2014.0219
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流域社会经济发展对山东省东平湖水环境影响评估及优化调控
后希康1,2, 高伟3, 徐鹏4, 罗永龙2, 韦亚南5, 营娜1, 周丰6
1.安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院, 芜湖 241000;2.安徽师范大学网络与信息安全工程技术研究中心, 芜湖 241000;3.北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 水沙科学教育部重点实验室, 北京 100871;4.安徽师范大学环境科学与工程学院, 芜湖 241000;5.山东省环境保护科学研究设计院, 济南 250013;6.北京大学城市与环境学院, 地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室, 北京 100871
摘要:
针对我国湖泊生态环境保护及"一湖一策"工作的需要,开展了流域社会经济对东平湖水环境效应评估及联合调控方案研究.在基于"压力状态响应"评估方法、系统动力学模拟和情景分析的基础上,全面评估了东平湖当前水平、未来变化速率和主要瓶颈,确定了流域社会经济系统调控战略的必要性及潜力、方向和底线.结果表明:1)东平湖评估指数从2000年的52.4提升到2010年的61.6,其评估等级从Ⅲ级提升到Ⅱ级,若仅维持现状水平和高速发展速度,未来20年评估指数将很可能呈现缓慢下降趋势,长期处于Ⅲ级,甚至达到Ⅳ级;2)为了确保维持现状等级及稳中小幅度上升的趋势,到2030年,东平湖流域社会经济发展速度控制在过去11年平均增长速度的75%,环境响应措施提升到评估标准的Ⅰ级水平;3)建议东平湖的流域生态系统管理工作应先削减已有的和潜在的污染源排放量,随后以自然恢复为主,使湖泊水质进一步改善.
关键词:  生态安全评估  系统动力学  流域管理  情景分析  东平湖
DOI:10.18307/2014.0219
分类号:
基金项目:山东省环境保护科学研究设计院项目(2012);国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项项目(2013ZX07102006)联合资助
Impacts of watershed socio-economic development on Lake Dongping ecosystems of Shandong Province: Assessment and joint-mitigation
HOU Xikang1,2, GAO Wei3, XU Peng4, LUO Yonglong2, WEI Yanan5, YING Na1, ZHOU Feng6
1.College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, P. R. China;2.Engineering Technology Research Center of Network and Information Security, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, P. R. China;3.Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, P. R. China;4.College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, P. R. China;5.Shandong Academy of Environmental Science, Jinan 250013, P. R. China;6.Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, P. R. China
Abstract:
An assessment approach is proposed to understand the aquatic effects of watershed socio-economic development in order to support Lake Dongping watershed management and its potential solution is identified for joint-mitigation of socio-economic impacts. Different with traditional studies, this integrated framework, including PSR-based assessment, system dynamics and scenario analysis, identifies the current status, future trend and its limited indicators as well as the potential, direction and threshold of joint-mitigation. The results indicate that (i) the assessment index for Lake Dongping was increased from 52.4 (level Ⅲ) at 2000 to 61.6 (level Ⅱ) at 2010, however, the future trend would be decreased slowly in next 20 years and stay at level Ⅲ or IV for a long time if keeping current high-speed developing rate and control levels,(ii) it was essential to reduce the developing rate at 2030 as about 75% of average value in past 11 years and to improve the environmental protection as level I required by assessment criteria; and (iii) the roadmap for Lake Dongping watershed should pay more attention to the pollution reductions of current and potential sources following by natural restoration.
Key words:  Ecological security assessment  system dynamics  watershed management  scenario analysis  Lake Dongping
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