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引用本文:周洪华,李卫红,陈亚宁,付爱红.博斯腾湖水盐动态变化(1951-2011年)及对气候变化的响应.湖泊科学,2014,26(1):55-65. DOI:10.18307/2014.0107
ZHOU Honghua,LI Weihong,CHEN Yaning,FU Aihong.Water-salt succession patterns(1951 2011) and its response to climate change in Lake Bosten. J. Lake Sci.2014,26(1):55-65. DOI:10.18307/2014.0107
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博斯腾湖水盐动态变化(1951-2011年)及对气候变化的响应
周洪华, 李卫红, 陈亚宁, 付爱红
中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830011
摘要:
分析了1951-2011年博斯腾湖历史水位和湖水矿化度的动态变化特征,解析了博斯腾湖水量与水质对气候变化的响应及未来变化趋势.结果表明,博斯腾湖水位在60年内经历了两个突变时期,突变时间分别为1974年和1994年,湖水矿化度也相应地呈现了三个动态变化阶段,水量与水位呈极显著负相关,但水质变化滞后于水位变化1年;流域气温呈显著增加趋势,气温升高的突变时间为1993年,与开都河出山口径流突变时间一致,但降水变化不显著;1993年前,博斯腾湖水量主要受气温和人类活动双重影响,1993年后博斯腾湖水量主要受气温的显著影响,气温主要通过改变入湖水量及湖区蒸发损耗来调控湖泊水位和水质;未来气温持续升高情景下,博斯腾湖水位将面临降低趋势,水质也将有恶化趋势.因此,为合理开发利用博斯腾湖水资源,减少水资源无效损耗,抑制水质恶化趋势,确保流域可持续发展,建议将博斯腾湖调水时间集中在5-9月,并严格控制孔雀河流域工农业用水量及工农业、生活污染源,减少污水排放量,减少周边地下水开发量.
关键词:  博斯腾湖  水量  矿化度  气温  径流
DOI:10.18307/2014.0107
分类号:
基金项目:中国科学院"西部之光"人才计划项目(XBBS201008,XBBS201026);国家重点基础研究发展计划"973"项目(2010CB951003)联合资助
Water-salt succession patterns(1951 2011) and its response to climate change in Lake Bosten
ZHOU Honghua, LI Weihong, CHEN Yaning, FU Aihong
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, P. R. China
Abstract:
Lake Bosten is the largest inland freshwater lake of China and plays a key role in the local arid-area ecosystem. The amount and quality of the water Lake Bosten are vital to the people in the oasis based socio-economic system the lake supportted. However, the environmental problems of Lake Bosten emerged are getting worse day by day resulted from the large variation of water level and worse and worse water quality, which were focused by the government and scholars. This study focuses on the dynamics of water-salinity of Lake Bosten in the past 60 years(1951-2011) and their response to climate change, attempted to predict water level and water quality change trend. The results showed that water level of Lake Bosten in 1951-2011 had a significant increasing trend. Step change points in water level were identified in Lake Bosten, which occurred in the years around 1974 and 1994 dividing the long-term water level series into a stable period(1951-1974), a decreasing period(1975-1994) and an increasing period (1995-2011). Water salinity of Lake Bosten also presented three change stages. And the water level and water salinity showed a significant negative correlation, but the water quality change lagged one year compared with the water level. The temperature in Lake Bosten basin had a significant increasing trend, and its step change point occurred in the year around 1993, which was consistent with the run-off in Kaidu River. The correlation between the temperature and water level, water quality in the Lake Bosten is extremely significant. The temperature regulated the water quality and water level of Lake Bosten through changing the lake inflow and evaporation. The water level will have a decreasing trend and water quality will be worse and worse if the temperature maintain continued rising in the future. Therefore, in order to ensure the sustainable development and utilization of the water resources of Lake Bosten, and inhibit the deterioration of water quality, it should be concentrated the diversion time of Lake Bosten from May to September, and strictly controlled the industrial and agricultural water consumption, reduced the emissions of industrial, agricultural and domestic pollution, decreased the amount of surrounding groundwater development.
Key words:  Lake Bosten  amount of water  salinization  temperature  run-off
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