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引用本文:刘晓臣,李小平,王玉峰,魏自民,程曦,陈小华,王菲菲,陈无歧.基于生态动力学模型的兴凯湖营养物入湖与富营养化状态响应模拟.湖泊科学,2013,25(6):862-871. DOI:10.18307/2013.0610
LIU Xiaochen,LI Xiaoping,WANG Yufeng,WEI Zimin,CHENG Xi,CHEN Xiaohua,WANG Feifei,CHEN Wuqi.Simulation of the response of eutrophic state to nutrient input in Lake Xingkai based on ecological dynamic model. J. Lake Sci.2013,25(6):862-871. DOI:10.18307/2013.0610
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基于生态动力学模型的兴凯湖营养物入湖与富营养化状态响应模拟
刘晓臣1, 李小平1, 王玉峰2, 魏自民3, 程曦4, 陈小华5, 王菲菲1, 陈无歧1
1.华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室, 上海 200062;2.黑龙江省农业科学院, 哈尔滨 150086;3.东北农业大学, 哈尔滨 150030;4.卫世敦环保咨询 上海 有限公司, 上海 200032;5.上海市环境科学研究院, 上海 200233
摘要:
针对兴凯湖富营养化的问题,应用生态动力学模型DELFT-3D对兴凯湖进行数值模拟,确立了一套适用于兴凯湖的特征参数,将模拟结果与实测数据对比进行准确性检验,结果显示DELFT-3D耦合模型较好地模拟了兴凯湖水质情况和藻类浓度动态,与实测数据基本吻合.在此基础上设置不同控制情景,模拟长时间序列下兴凯湖营养物投入与湖泊水质、藻类的响应关系.结果表明,小兴凯湖在惯性发展模式下TN、TP和Chl.a浓度迅速增加,Chl.a浓度的初始值为8.96 mg/m3,到2015年和2020年分别提高了32.37%和65.51%,尤其是在5月和8月的两个峰值区,小兴凯湖面临严峻的藻类水华风险;相对于TP,大、小兴凯湖Chl.a浓度随TN入湖量的变化趋势更显著.在满足Dillion模型计算的兴凯湖承载力基础上进一步加大削减力度,可以使小兴凯湖水质保持在Ⅲ类水水平,大兴凯湖保持在Ⅱ类水水平,小兴凯湖对大兴凯湖起到了缓冲带的作用,应增加Chl.a为兴凯湖富营养化控制标准,为藻类水华提供预警.
关键词:  兴凯湖  生态动力学模型  富营养化  TN  TP  富营养化控制标准
DOI:10.18307/2013.0610
分类号:
基金项目:国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项项目(2009ZX07106-001)资助
Simulation of the response of eutrophic state to nutrient input in Lake Xingkai based on ecological dynamic model
LIU Xiaochen1, LI Xiaoping1, WANG Yufeng2, WEI Zimin3, CHENG Xi4, CHEN Xiaohua5, WANG Feifei1, CHEN Wuqi1
1.State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, P. R. China;2.Heilongjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Haerbin 150086, P. R. China;3.Northeast Agricultural University, Haerbin 150030, P. R. China;4.Weston Solution Co. Ltd., Shanghai 200032, P. R. China;5.Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences, Shanghai 200233, P. R. China
Abstract:
Lake Xingkai is suffering from eutrophication and frequent algae blooms.Based on the DELFT-3D model,this study established a set of parameters applicable for the Lake Xingkai ecosystem and simulated the dynamics of water quality and algae.In addition,this paper simulated the change of water quality and algae by setting different control scenarios.The results show that the concentrations of TN,TP and Chl.a rose rapidly in the small Lake Xingkai.With the initial value of 8.96 mg/m3,the Chl.a was increased by 32.37% and 65.51% in 2015 and 2020,respectively,which would lead to serious risk of algae bloom especially in May and August.The simulation result revealed that the concentration of Chl.a changed significantly with the amount of nitrogen input in the small Lake Xingkai.With further nutrient-cutting efforts,the water quality of the small Lake Xingkai could reach type Ⅱ water,the water of the large Lake Xingkai could reach type Ⅲ water.The small Lake Xingkai plays a role of buffer zone for the large Lake Xingkai.Chl.a should be added to the eutrophication control standards to provide early warning for algal bloom.
Key words:  Lake Xingkai  ecological dynamic model  eutrophication  TN  TP  eutrophication control standards
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