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引用本文:刘晓臣,李小平,陈小华,程曦,王菲菲,陈无歧.SD模型在洱海流域营养物削减策略研究中的应用.湖泊科学,2013,25(5):655-664. DOI:10.18307/2013.0506
LIU Xiaochen,LI Xiaoping,CHEN Xiaohua,CHENG Xi,WANG Feifei,CHEN Wuqi.Reduction strategies for TN and TP based on system dynamics model (SD) in Lake Erhai. J. Lake Sci.2013,25(5):655-664. DOI:10.18307/2013.0506
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SD模型在洱海流域营养物削减策略研究中的应用
刘晓臣1, 李小平1, 陈小华2, 程曦3, 王菲菲1, 陈无歧1
1.华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室, 上海 200062;2.上海市环境科学研究院, 上海 200233;3.卫世敦环保咨询 上海 有限公司, 上海 200032
摘要:
针对洱海富营养化问题,本文在深入分析洱海流域营养物输运转移特征的基础上,应用VENSIM-DSS构建了洱海流域的社会、经济、技术、环境SD耦合模型.模型由7个子系统组成,确定了一套适用于洱海流域的耦合模型特征参数.对入湖TN、TP进行追根溯源,模拟结果表明洱海流域入湖TN主要来源于种植业子系统、畜牧业子系统、生活污水子系统和干湿沉降子系统,以上4大子系统占入湖TN的88%;入湖TP主要来源于种植业子系统、畜牧业子系统、生活污水子系统和水土流失子系统,以上4大子系统占入湖TP的89%.以此为基础通过设置4种不同的营养物削减情景,模拟未来10年入湖TN、TP的变化,并通过构建的政策评价子系统和DILLON模型定量评价不同削减方案的可行性,提出最优洱海流域营养物削减方案.
关键词:  洱海  SD模型  TN、TP削减策略  VENSIM-DSS软件
DOI:10.18307/2013.0506
分类号:
基金项目:国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项项目(2009ZX07106-001)资助
Reduction strategies for TN and TP based on system dynamics model (SD) in Lake Erhai
LIU Xiaochen1, LI Xiaoping1, CHEN Xiaohua2, CHENG Xi3, WANG Feifei1, CHEN Wuqi1
1.State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, P. R. China;2.Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences, Shanghai 200233, P. R. China;3.Weston Solution Co. Ltd., Shanghai 200032, P. R. China
Abstract:
In order to solve the problem of lake eutrophication in Lake Erhai,a model based on the analysis of nutrients transport was applied to establish society,economy,technology and environment coupling SD model for Lake Erhai drainage area using VENSIM-DSS.The SD model is consisted of seven subsystems searching for the sources of TN and TP.The research established a set of parameters applicable for the Lake Erhai coupling model.The stimulation results showed 88% of TN was from the subsystems of plantation,animal husbandry,sewage and dry and wet deposition,and 89% of TP was from the subsystems of plantation,animal husbandry,sewage,soil and water loss in Lake Erhai catchment.Based on the results,four kinds of nutrient reduction solutions were set to stimulate the changes of TN and TP for the next ten years.The feasibilities of different reduction solutions were quantitatively estimated by policy evaluation subsystem and DILLON model to put forward the optimal nutrient reduction solutions for Lake Erhai catchment.
Key words:  Lake Erhai  SD model  reduction strategies of TN and TP  VENSIM-DSS software
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