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引用本文:高伟,陈岩,徐敏,郭怀成,谢阳村.抚仙湖水质变化(1980-2011年)趋势与驱动力分析.湖泊科学,2013,25(5):635-642. DOI:10.18307/2013.0503
GAO Wei,CHEN Yan,XU Min,GUO Huaicheng,XIE Yangcun.Trend and driving factors of water quality change in Lake Fuxian(1980-2011). J. Lake Sci.2013,25(5):635-642. DOI:10.18307/2013.0503
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抚仙湖水质变化(1980-2011年)趋势与驱动力分析
高伟1, 陈岩1, 徐敏2, 郭怀成1, 谢阳村2
1.北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 水沙科学教育部重点实验室, 北京 100871;2.环境保护部环境规划院, 北京 100012
摘要:
水质恶化是湖泊系统生态健康的主要制约因素之一,科学地判别水质变化趋势是正确认识和解决水环境问题的首要步骤.基于抚仙湖1980-2011共32年湖体水质监测数据,采用Mann-Kendall和Daniel趋势检验法分析了高锰酸盐指数(CODMn)、总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、透明度(SD)、叶绿素a(Chl.a)和浮游植物丰度等6项指标的年际变化趋势;从人类活动和自然环境变化2个角度,筛选出9项水质变化的驱动指标,建立了水质指标与驱动指标之间的灰色关联模型.研究结果表明:①统计的6项指标年际波动较大,其中TP、TN和浮游植物丰度的变异系数最大,达到0.6以上;②在α=0.05显著性水平上,CODMn、TN、SD、Chl.a和浮游植物丰度等5项指标均有恶化趋势,Mann-Kendall和Daniel趋势检验2种方法的检验结果一致;③驱动因子与水质指标之间有较强的相关水平,其中,人口数量和水温是主要驱动因子,与主要水质指标的灰色关联系数达到0.7以上的强相关水平.
关键词:  抚仙湖  水质变化  趋势检验  驱动力
DOI:10.18307/2013.0503
分类号:
基金项目:国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项项目(2013ZX07102006)资助
Trend and driving factors of water quality change in Lake Fuxian(1980-2011)
GAO Wei1, CHEN Yan1, XU Min2, GUO Huaicheng1, XIE Yangcun2
1.Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, Ministry of Education, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, P. R. China;2.Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, P. R. China
Abstract:
Water environment deterioration is critic to the health of lake ecosystem,and trend analysis is considered as the very first step to mitigate water pollution.Based on pollutants monitoring data from 1980 to 2011 in Lake Fuxian,trends of CODMn,TN, TP,SD,Chl.a and phytoplankton abundance are quantified using Mann-Kendall and Daniel trend test methods.From the perspectives of human impacts and natural changes,9 indices of driving forces are selected to build the grey relationships between driving factors and water quality.Results show that (1) six indices of water quality changed greatly during the period of 1980-2011, among which TP,TN and phytoplankton abundance fluctuated the most with coefficient of variations greater than 0.6;(2) CODMn, TN,SD,Chl.a and phytoplankton abundance showed significant degradation at 0.05 significance level,and results of Mann-Kendall and Daniel are consistent;(3) significant correlation was found between water quality index and selected driving factors in which human population and water temperature are identified as the main factors with correlation coefficient values higher than 0.7.
Key words:  Lake Fuxian  water quality change  trend test  driving factors
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