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引用本文:于革,桂峰,李永飞.太湖1889洪水年的流域水文模拟.湖泊科学,2012,24(5):651-657. DOI:10.18307/2012.0501
YU Ge,GUI Feng,LI Yongfei.Hydrological simulations of the 1889 flood year for Lake Taihu. J. Lake Sci.2012,24(5):651-657. DOI:10.18307/2012.0501
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太湖1889洪水年的流域水文模拟
于革1, 桂峰2, 李永飞1
1.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所, 南京 210008;2.浙江海洋学院环境科学系, 舟山 316000
摘要:
由于受到水文观测资料时间短的限制,目前难以认识百年遇机率的极端洪水.为此,本文根据19世纪末历史文献的洪水灾害记录,利用流域水文模型,对太湖1889洪水年的流域产流、入湖汇流等水文特征和过程进行模拟.本研究设计了三套模拟实验:首先在现代气候控制实验基础上对1988-2002年时间系列和特大洪水年进行水文模拟和模型率定校验;其次,采用长江下游19世纪末的气候观测资料驱动,对极端年份1889年逐日洪水过程模拟;最后,为减少1 a洪水年模拟的不确定性,还采用蒙特卡罗Bootstrap法模拟了15 a的流域气候场,在5475 d样本下进行特征年份的水文模拟.模拟结果表明,1889年洪水期间产流在当年6月底达到最大,1%频率的径流深达8.6 mm/d,95%CI的误差在-2.94~3.26 mm/d之间.汇入太湖径流同期达到最大,1%频率的洪水流量达到1286.9 m3/s,95%CI的误差在-128.3~165.7 m3/s之间.根据洪水Log-Normal概率分布,计算1889洪水年的重现期为149 a.经Bootstrap法对误差置信区的模拟,95%CI检验在70~175 a间的重现期可信.该研究为延长20世纪洪水序列、拓展对百年时间尺度的特大洪水的认识提供了动力学模拟方面的科学依据.
关键词:  极端降水  1889年洪水  流域水文模拟  产流和汇流  重现期  百年遇机率  太湖流域
DOI:10.18307/2012.0501
分类号:
基金项目:中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-338);科技部全球变化重大科学研究计划项目(2012CB956103)联合资助
Hydrological simulations of the 1889 flood year for Lake Taihu
YU Ge1, GUI Feng2, LI Yongfei1
1.Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, P. R. China;2.Department of Environment Science, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316000, P. R. China
Abstract:
Due to limitation of short time series of hydrological observations, it is hard to know the centennial timescale chance of extreme floods. The present study simulated catchment runoff and discharge of the 1889 flood year in Lake Taihu, on basis of historical flood records and by means of the catchment hydrology model. Three experiments were performed in the simulations:firstly control-run simulations for 1988-2002 to calibrate and validate the modeling, secondly simulations of daily processes for the 1889 flood year driven by observed climate records during the end of 19th century; thirdly simulations of 15 year-Monte Carlo Bootstrap resampling for the special flood year to decrease the 1-year sample uncertainty. Results showed that the 1889 flood peaks occurred during the end of 1889 June and the greater than 99th percentile of monthly runoff reached 8.6 mm/d (the 95%CI errors between -2.94 and 3.26 mm/d). The discharge peak to Lake Taihu also occurred in the same month, and the greater than 99th percentile of daily discharge reached 1286.9 m3/s (the 95%CI errors between-128.3 and 165.7 m3/s). Following the Log-Normal distribution that has been tested in the control run simulations, return period of the 1889 flood year is 149 years. After simulations for the error intervals by the Bootstrap confidence interval method, the return period during 70-175 years is much confident. The study will provide scientific basis of hydrological dynamics for extending the time series of the 20th century hydrology and knowing the centennial timescale chance of extreme floods.
Key words:  Extreme precipitation  1889 flood year  catchment hydrology modeling  runoff and discharge  return period  centennial timescale chance  Lake Taihu
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