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引用本文:吴威,吴松,陈爽.基于SD模型分析的环鄱阳湖地区发展模式探讨.湖泊科学,2012,24(2):252-258. DOI:10.18307/2012.0213
WU Wei,WU Song,CHEN Shuang.Development pattern of Lake Poyang Region based on the system dynamic model. J. Lake Sci.2012,24(2):252-258. DOI:10.18307/2012.0213
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基于SD模型分析的环鄱阳湖地区发展模式探讨
吴威1, 吴松2, 陈爽1
1.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所, 南京 210008;2.惠州市规划设计研究院, 惠州 516001
摘要:
系统动力学(SD)模型在模拟复杂的区域发展问题中具有明显优势,本文在深入分析环鄱阳湖地区区域发展各子系统、各要素之间关系的基础上,构建了区域发展SD模型,并通过设立4种发展情景模拟了不同发展模式下区域发展特征.结果表明,惯性发展不仅发展速度较慢,同时将带来严重的生态与环境问题;高经济增长低环保投入发展尽管保持了经济的高速增长,但对生态环境将造成较大程度的破坏;高经济增长高环保投入方式通过加大环保投入,能较好地解决经济高速增长所带来的污染问题;而强调经济结构调整的产业优化升级发展方式在保证经济较高速发展的同时,较好地维持了区域生态环境的良性循环.充分考虑环鄱阳湖地区区域特征,本文综合各模式优劣势,提出了推荐发展模式,以实现经济增长与生态环境保护之间的平衡.
关键词:  SD模型  环鄱阳湖地区  发展模式  情景分析
DOI:10.18307/2012.0213
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(40801052);江西省经济社会发展重大课题项目联合资助
Development pattern of Lake Poyang Region based on the system dynamic model
WU Wei1, WU Song2, CHEN Shuang1
1.Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, P. R. China;2.Huizhou Institute of Urban Planning and Design, Huizhou 516001, P. R. China
Abstract:
System dynamics (SD) model is suitable for the simulation of the complex issues of regional development. Based on the analysis of the relationship among the sub-systems, the various elements of Lake Poyang Region system, the SD model is constructed, and 4 development scenarios are simulated to reveal the characteristics of regional development. Results show that the inertia development pattern not only leads to the slow pace of development, but also results in serious ecological and environmental issues; the pattern of high growth with low environment input maintain rapid economic growth but will lead to a greater damage of environment; meanwhile, the pattern of high growth and high environmental input can maintain the high speed growth of economy and solve the pollution caused by economic growth through increased investment in environmental protection; the industrial upgrading pattern emphasizing on economic restructuring, can ensure a relatively rapid economic development and maintain the virtuous cycle of regional ecology and environment. Account of regional characteristics of Lake Poyang Region and the advantages and disadvantages of each scenario, the recommended development pattern is put forward in this paper to achieve a balance between the economic growth and regional ecology and environment.
Key words:  System dynamic model  Lake Poyang Region  development pattern  scenario analysis
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