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引用本文:张强,孙鹏,江涛.鄱阳湖流域水文极值演变特征、成因与影响.湖泊科学,2011,23(3):445-453. DOI:10.18307/2011.0319
ZHANG Qiang,SUN Peng,JIANG Tao.Changing properties, causes and impacts of extreme streamflow in Lake Poyang basin, China. J. Lake Sci.2011,23(3):445-453. DOI:10.18307/2011.0319
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鄱阳湖流域水文极值演变特征、成因与影响
张强1,2, 孙鹏1,2, 江涛1,2
1.中山大学水资源与环境系, 广州 510275;2.中山大学华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室, 广州 510275
摘要:
选用11种概率分布函数,系统分析了鄱阳湖流域"五河"的6个水文站年最大径流量与连续3d、7d最大平均日流量,函数参数以及拟合优度分别由线性矩法与柯尔莫哥洛夫-斯米尔诺夫方法检验,选出最适合该区流量极值分布函数.在此基础上,对引起该流域水文极值变化的原因及其影响作了有益的探讨.结果表明:(1)韦克比分布是用于研究鄱阳湖流域水文极值的最佳概率分布函数;(2)各水文站重现期对应的流量在水库建设前后变化并不一致,具体为建库后外洲站小于30 a重现期、虎山站大于70 a重现期和万家埠站小于20 a重现期洪水流量发生概率小于建库前发生的概率,而其余各站点各重现期在建库后发生洪水的概率大于建库前发生的概率,这与不同支流水文气象条件以及人类活动差异性有关;(3)降雨量和水利枢纽工程是影响鄱阳湖流域水文极值变化的重要因素.极端降雨和降雨强度的增加是导致洪水发生概率增大的最主要的因素,水利工程特别建设在干流的大型水利设施能减少洪水流量,而森林对洪水流量的影响并不明显.
关键词:  频率分析  概率分布函数  极值流量  鄱阳湖流域
DOI:10.18307/2011.0319
分类号:
基金项目:广东省自然科学基金项目(2009-37000-4203384);国家自然科学基金项目(40701015,41071020);中山大学理工科青年教师重点培育计划项目(2009-37000-1132381);中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX1YW08-01)联合资助
Changing properties, causes and impacts of extreme streamflow in Lake Poyang basin, China
ZHANG Qiang1,2, SUN Peng1,2, JIANG Tao1,2
1.Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, P. R. China;2.Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, P. R. China
Abstract:
We analyzed the statistical properties of maximum mean 7-day streamflow in Lake Poyang basin using eleven probability distribution functions. Estimate of parameters was performed using the L-moment technique. Goodness-of-fit was done based on Kolmogorov-Smimov statistic D. Mann-Kendall trend test was used to detect the trends within the streamflow extreme series. The research results indicate that; (1) Wakeby distribution is the good choice for description of the statistical behaviors of streamflow extremes in the study region; (2) Changing properties are varying from one station to another, implying different fluvial geomorphological features, climate changes and human activities; (3) Rainfall and hydraulic engineering is an important factor in effect the changes of extreme streamflow in the Lake Poyang basin. Higher frequency of hydrological and meteorological extremes may cause higher probability of floods in the study region. While hydraulic engineering, especially the construction of large-scale water conservancy facilities in the river, reduce the flood discharge. The impact of forest on flood flows is not obvious.
Key words:  Frequency analysis  probability distribution functions  streamflow extremes  Lake Poyang basin
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