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引用本文:时兴合,秦宁生,邵雪梅,汪青春,刘义花.青海湖流域圆柏年轮指示的近千年降水变化.湖泊科学,2009,21(4):579-586. DOI:10.18307/2009.0418
SHI Xinghe,QIN Ningsheng,SHAO Xuemei,WANG Qingchun,LIU Yihua.Precipitation change over the past 1000 years recorded in Sabina Tibetica Tree Rings in Lake Qinghai Basin. J. Lake Sci.2009,21(4):579-586. DOI:10.18307/2009.0418
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青海湖流域圆柏年轮指示的近千年降水变化
时兴合1,2, 秦宁生1, 邵雪梅3, 汪青春2, 刘义花2
1.中国气象局成都高原气象研究所, 成都 610072;2.青海省气候中心, 西宁 810001;3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101
摘要:
根据采自青海湖流域天峻地区树木年轮样本,建立了该地1061a树木年轮年表序列.通过响应函数计算得出,该年表对青海湖区前一年年降水量反映敏感,由其重建了该地的年降水量序列,并应用交叉检验方法对校准方程进行了检验,证明重建方程稳定,重建的年降水变化比较可靠,具有一定的代表性.在10a时间尺度上年降水经历了11个偏多和偏少时段,其中6(7)个显著的偏少(多)时段分别是1001-1060、1131-1320、1411-1510、1691-1740、1811-1850年和1911-1940年(961-1000、1061-1110、1321-1410、1511-1650、1741-1790、1881-1910年和1941-2000年).平均约53a发生一次突变,13-14世纪是年降水的多变时期,12、17和20世纪是年降水的相对稳定时段.
关键词:  树轮年表  重建  年降水量  青海湖流域
DOI:10.18307/2009.0418
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金重大项目(40599424);中国气象局成都高原气象研究所开放基金项目(LPM2008024);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2007-28)联合资助
Precipitation change over the past 1000 years recorded in Sabina Tibetica Tree Rings in Lake Qinghai Basin
SHI Xinghe1,2, QIN Ningsheng1, SHAO Xuemei3, WANG Qingchun2, LIU Yihua2
1.Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu 610072, P. R. China;2.Climate Center of Qinghai, Xining 810001, P. R. China;3.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, P. R. China
Abstract:
Tree-ring width chronologies of Sabina Tibetica were constructed based on tree-rings of 1061-year sampled in Tianjun county of Lake Qinghai Basin. The response function analysis showed that the chronologies were sensitive to the annual precipitation so that the paper reconstructed annual precipitation series. The cross-validation method was used to check in the stability of the calibration equation, and the result indicated that the equation was stable and the variation of reconstructed annual precipitation was dependable and representative. There were six years showing precipitation below normal stage, which were periods of 1001 to 1060, 1131 to 1320, 1411 to 1510, 1691 to 1740, 1811 to 1850 and 1911 to 1940. There were seven years that showed precipitation above normal stage, which were period of 961 to 1000, 1061 to 1110, 1321 to 1410, 1511 to 1650, 1741 to 1790, 1881 to 1910 and 1941 to 2000. The occurrence of abrupt precipitation was once a time every 53 years.Reconstructed precipitation series showed an unstable period from the 13th to 14th centuries, but stable periods in the 12th, 17th and 20th centuries.
Key words:  Tree-ring chronology  reconstruction  annual precipitation  Lake Qinghai Basin
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