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引用本文:施雅风,姜彤,苏布达,陈家其,秦年秀.1840年以来长江大洪水演变与气候变化关系初探.湖泊科学,2004,16(4):289-297. DOI:10.18307/2004.0401
SHI Yafeng JIANG Tong,SU Buda,CHEN Jiaqi,QIN Nianxiu.Preliminary Analysis on the Relation Between the Evolution of Heavy Floods in the Yangtze River Catchment and the Climate Changes since 1840. J. Lake Sci.2004,16(4):289-297. DOI:10.18307/2004.0401
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1840年以来长江大洪水演变与气候变化关系初探
施雅风1,2, 姜彤1, 苏布达1,3, 陈家其1, 秦年秀1,3
1.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所, 南京 210008;2.中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 兰州 730000;3.中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100039
摘要:
长江洪水灾害是我国频率高、为患严重的自然灾害之一.本文依据可靠资料,选择1840年至2000年间32次大洪水记录,探讨其演变与气候变化的关系.认知1910s前的19世纪冷期出现大洪水13次(包括1870年的极值大洪水事件)频率为1.9次/10a.1921-2000年间出现了大洪水19次,频率为2.4次/10a.20世纪暖期又分出两个变暖时段,前一变暖时段的峰值期1920s-1940s出现大洪水9次,包含1931年全流域大洪水.后一变暖时段,即1980s与1990s出现大洪水8次.实测记录到的最大洪水1954年位于前一变暖时段结束阶段.1990s是全球,也是我国近百年中最暖年代,受东南季风影响大的中下游地区夏季降水量是近百年最多的,大暴雨频率也是有较多记录的40年来最高的.以此出现了10年5次大洪水高频率现象,包含1998年全流域型大洪水,表明了全球变暖的显著影响.也指示30-40年问周期性振荡中多雨年代.如此可预期21世纪初期降水会有小幅度下降与大洪水频率在短期内降低的可能性.长江上游受西南季风影响较大,19世纪下半期与20世纪上半期为多降水期,大洪水频率较高.20世纪下半期为少降水期,大洪水频率较低.关于气候变化研究有待深入,前景不易预估.
关键词:  长江洪水  19世纪冷期  20世纪暖期  长江中下游夏季降水  30-40a年代际振荡
DOI:10.18307/2004.0401
分类号:
基金项目:中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所知识创新工程所长专项基金(SS220007)国家自然科学基金项目(40371112)联合资助.
Preliminary Analysis on the Relation Between the Evolution of Heavy Floods in the Yangtze River Catchment and the Climate Changes since 1840
SHI Yafeng JIANG Tong1,2, SU Buda1, CHEN Jiaqi1,3, QIN Nianxiu1
1.Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limiuylogy, CAS, Nanjing 210008, P. R. China;2.Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, CAS, Lanzhou, 730000, P. R. China;3.Gradiuite School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, P. R. China
Abstract:
Based on the reliable instrumental and/or historical data, 32 heavy flood records in the Yangtze River catchment from 1840 to 2000 were selected and the relation between flood evolution and climate changes were discussed.By analysis, the authors come to following conclusion: in the 19th century cold period (since 1840) before 1910s, there were 13 heavy floods and frequency is 1.9 times/10a;from warm period 1921 to 2000, there were 19 heavy floods and frequency is 2.4 times/10a.During the 20th century, there were two warm phases and in the decades of peak value of preceding one (1920s-1940s), there were 9 heavy floods and in the second warm phase (1980s and 1990s), there were 8 heavy floods.The observed record of heaviest flood occurred in the ending of preceding warm period (year 1954).The 1990s is the warmest decades in the global and China as well.Influenced mainly bv south-east monsoon, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River catchment have experienced their top precipitation record in recent 100 years and the frequency of rainstorm also belonged to the highest in the last 40 years with detailed data source.Perhaps the high frequency of heavy floods in 1990s (5 times/10a) either indicates the significant impact of global worming on water cycle or reflects the higher rainy decades in periodical variation of 30-40 years which is related to the variation of monsoon circulation.Accordingly, there are possibilities that magnitude of precipitation and frequency of heavy floods might be drop slightly in the initial stage of 21st century.As to the upper reaches of the Yangtze River catchment, influenced most by southwest monsoon, the late 19th and early 20th century had witnessed a period of more rain and frequent heavy floods, while the last half century of 20th century, with lower heavy floods frequency, belongs to lower precipitation periods.There are great needs to improve the study of climate changes in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River catchment for reasonably predicting its future tendency.
Key words:  Floods in the Yangtze River catchment  cold periods in 19th and warm periods in 20th century  summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River catchment  decadal scale variation in 30-40a
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