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引用本文:于革,赖格英,薛滨,刘晓玫,王苏民,王爱军.中国西部湖泊水量对未来气候变化的响应——蒙特卡罗概率法在气候模拟输出的应用.湖泊科学,2004,16(3):193-202. DOI:10.18307/2004.0301
YU Ge,LAI Geying,XUE Bin,LIU Xiaomei,WANG Sumin,Wang Aijun.Preliminary Study on the Responses of Lake Water from the Western China to Climate change in the Future: Monte Carlo Analysis Applied in GCM Simulations and Lake Water Changes. J. Lake Sci.2004,16(3):193-202. DOI:10.18307/2004.0301
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中国西部湖泊水量对未来气候变化的响应——蒙特卡罗概率法在气候模拟输出的应用
于革1,2, 赖格英1, 薛滨1, 刘晓玫1, 王苏民1, 王爱军3
1.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所, 南京210008;2.Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, Regina SK S4S 7J7, Canada;3.南京大学城市资源系, 南京 210093
摘要:
基于CGCm2对未来100年气候的9个模拟试验, 对中国半干旱地区青海湖、岱海和呼伦湖及其流域, 运用蒙特卡罗分析法模拟湖泊水量对气候变化的响应以及相应的概率.结果表明, 从2020s, 2050s和2080s三个时期温度增加的发生频率高于75%的分布看, 温度将稳定增加2-5℃.未来的年平均温度增幅将超过了过去50年的观测记录, 与过去一万年期间高温期的变化幅度相当.三个时期75%以上发生频率的温度和降水变化将会分别引起青海湖流域为-5%至+10%, 呼伦湖流域为-7%至+5%, 岱海流域为+2%至+12%的降水变化.虽然未来年降水总量的变幅没有超过过去50年器测记录变幅, 更不及全新世的降水变化量, 但湖泊水量对气候变化的反映变率较变幅要大.模拟的气候变化在75%概率的情况下, 未来3个湖泊水量将有累计30%-45%的变化, 变幅在±10%之间.快速的湖泊水量变化不能不引起对不远未来的水资源状况的重视和警备.
关键词:  湖泊水量  GCM模拟  气候响应  蒙特卡罗概率
DOI:10.18307/2004.0301
分类号:
基金项目:中国科学院知识创新项目(KZCX2-SW-118和KZCX1-SW-12);国家重点基础研究发展计划(2002CB412301);加拿大CFCAS(CanadianFoundationforClimateandAtmosphericSciences)项目
Preliminary Study on the Responses of Lake Water from the Western China to Climate change in the Future: Monte Carlo Analysis Applied in GCM Simulations and Lake Water Changes
YU Ge1,2, LAI Geying1, XUE Bin1, LIU Xiaomei1, WANG Sumin1, Wang Aijun3
1.Nanjing Institute of Geography &Liminology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, P.R.China;2.Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, Regina SK S4S7J7, Canada;3.Department of Urban and Resources, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, P.R. China
Abstract:
Although climate simulation of the GCMs is an important basis to configure the future climate, there are numerous uncertainties in a simply application of the GCM outputs.Monte Carlo probability analysis is a powerful tool to determine the probability of projected climate, and understand better the uncertainties.We applied the Monte Carlo technique in the GCM climate simulations for the future 100 year, and analyzed the probabilities in the responses of lake water changes to the future climate for Qinghai Lake, Hulun Lake and Daihai Lake in the western China. The results show that the temperatures in year 2020s, 2050s and 2080s would have stable 2-5℃ increases at a 75% chance.The changes in temperature would exceed to the gauges of last 50 years and be equivalent to reconstructions during the Holocene.The 75% chance climate change would lead to lake water changes ranging-5% to+10% in Qinghai Lake Basin, -7% to+5% in Hulun Lake Basin and+2% to-+12% in Daihai Basin.Although the future changes in precipitation are equivalent to the last 50-yr gauges and lower than changes in the Holocene, the speed of lake water change was much high.Under the conditions of the projected climate at 75% chance, the 3 lakes would have cumulative 30%-45% changes with the amplitudes of-10% to+10%.The fast responses of the lake water would warn us that we should have a preparation enough for the future changes in water resources.
Key words:  Lake water  GCM simulation  climate responses  Monte Carlo probability
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