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引用本文:秦年秀,姜彤,原峰.1990s长江下游干流径流量演变趋势.湖泊科学,2003,15(Z1):138-146. DOI:10.18307/2003.sup17
QIN Nianxiu,JIANG Tong,Yuan Feng.Trend Analysis on the Streamflow in the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River. J. Lake Sci.2003,15(Z1):138-146. DOI:10.18307/2003.sup17
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1990s长江下游干流径流量演变趋势
秦年秀1,2, 姜彤1, 原峰1,2
1.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所, 南京 210008;2.中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100039
摘要:
利用M-K相关分析方法和大通站1950-2000年逐月径流资料,研究了长江下游干流径流的趋势变化.研究结果表明:1950s以来长江下游径流量呈增加趋势,1990s平均径流量(30415.3 m3/s)比所有其他年代平均径流都大,为近50a以来的最大值;就季节和月份而言,秋季径流明显减少;夏、冬两季径流量,增加的趋势明显,尤以冬季枯水季节径流增加最为突出.洪水、枯水季节径流增加明显,但以枯水季节径流增加占优势.冬季枯水径流的增加,可能在一定程度上能够缓解长江口生态环境的巨大压力.1990s径流量的增加与全球变暖、水循环加快、长江流域降水量增加密切相关.
关键词:  1990s  长江下游干流  径流趋势分析  大通站
DOI:10.18307/2003.sup17
分类号:
基金项目:中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(长江中下游洪水孕灾环境变化、致灾机理与减灾对策,KZCX3-SW-331)和国家自然科学基金项目(历史时期长江中下游平原旱涝序列时空格局与风险评价,40271112)联合资助
Trend Analysis on the Streamflow in the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River
QIN Nianxiu1,2, JIANG Tong1, Yuan Feng1,2
1.Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, P. R. China;2.The Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, P. R. China
Abstract:
Based on the average monthly runoff records from 1950 to 2000 at Datong station of the Yangtze River, the Mann-Kendall trends test has been applied to examine the runoff trends in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The results show the average discharge in the 1990s was the highest, in comparison to other decades for Datong station, and there is a slight increasing of runoff in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1950s, the trend will be continued due to the effect of global wanning. As to seasonal and/or monthly variation, a distinct decreasing trend has been detected for autumn, and there is significant increasing trend in summer and winter, especially in winter. In some sense, the increasing of runoff for winter may mitigate the pressure of the environments at the delta of Yangtze River. Significant positive trend has been observed for flood seasons and dry seasons, which is more obvious in dry seasons. The increasing of runoff in 1990s is very closely linked with the global warming, quicker water circulations and the increasing of precipitation in the Yangtze River catchments.
Key words:  1990s  the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin  runoff trend analysis  Datong station
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