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陈宇炜,秦伯强,高锡云.太湖梅梁湾藻类及相关环境因子逐步回归统计和蓝藻水华的初步预测.湖泊科学,2001,13(1):63-71. DOI:10.18307/20010110
CHEN Yuw ei,QIN Boqiang,GAO Xiy un.Prediction of Blue-green Algae Bloom Using Stepwise Multiple Regression Between Algae &Related Environmental Factors in Meiliang Bay, Lake Taihu. J. Lake Sci.2001,13(1):63-71. DOI:10.18307/20010110
太湖梅梁湾藻类及相关环境因子逐步回归统计和蓝藻水华的初步预测
Prediction of Blue-green Algae Bloom Using Stepwise Multiple Regression Between Algae &Related Environmental Factors in Meiliang Bay, Lake Taihu
投稿时间:2000-11-20  修订日期:2000-11-20
DOI:10.18307/20010110
中文关键词: 太湖  多元逐步回归  微囊藻  预测
Keywords: Lake Taihu  stepwise multiple reg ression  Microcystis  prediction
基金项目:中国科学院创新项目(KZCX2-403)、院"九五"重大项目(KZ951-B1-205-02)、院重点项目(KZ952-S1-220、KZ952-S1-212)和南京地理与湖泊研究所所长基金联合资助
作者单位
陈宇炜 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所太湖湖泊生态系统研究站, 南京 210008 
秦伯强 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所太湖湖泊生态系统研究站, 南京 210008 
高锡云 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所太湖湖泊生态系统研究站, 南京 210008 
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中文摘要:
      以太湖梅梁湾1992-1999年的连续监测资料为基础,运用多元逐步回归统计方法,选择水温等15项环境理化因素与藻类叶绿素a、藻类总生物量和微囊藻生物量等3项生物因素进行逐步回归分析,找出与生物因素显著相关的环境因子,建立多元逐步回归方程,预测梅梁湾藻类生物量的变化情况,初步进行了梅梁湾蓝藻水华的预测预报.结果显示,水温和总磷为梅梁湾藻类总生物量的显著相关因子.水温、硝态氮和总氮为微囊藻生物量的显著相关因子.
Abstract:
      This study deals wi th the relation between algal biomass and 15 environmental factors such as w ater temperature (WT), suspend solids (SS), Secci-depth (SD), DO, COD, pH, NH4-N, NO2-N, NO3-N, TN, PO4-P, TP, Alkalinity (ALK) based on the monitoring data from 1992-1999 in Meiliang Bay, Lake Taihu.The stepwise multiple regression statistical method was used to calculate the relation between algal chlorophyll-a (Chla), total algal biomass (TB), Microcystis biomass (MB)and these environmental facto rs.The results show ed that WT and TP were the most significant related factors to TB while WT, NO3-N and TN were the most significant related factors to MB.These can be used to predict the blue-g reen algal bloom in the bay.
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