| 摘要: |
| 受气候变化和人类活动影响，湖泊水生态系统及其服务功能发生改变，研究湖泊水生态系统生产总值动态变化及其影响因素，对于维护湖泊健康生命、实现湖泊功能永续利用具有重要意义。选择位于气候敏感区和生态脆弱区的青海湖作为研究对象，根据青海湖水生态系统特征及当前保护状况，筛选调节服务及文化服务2类8个评估指标，构建湖泊水生态系统生产总值指标体系，核算2010–2020年青海湖水生态系统生产总值，分析其变化趋势及主要影响因素。结果表明，2010–2020年，青海湖水生态系统生产总值总体呈波动上升趋势，变化范围6903.47亿元~7848.55亿元；调节服务是青海湖水生态系统主要的服务类型，占比高达91%。近十年，气候调节和水质净化价值有所减少，其他服务功能价值均呈增加趋势。水源涵养价值增加最多，增长760.70亿元；气候调节价值下降最多，减少658.59亿元。偏最小二乘回归分析表明，水温、水位是影响青海湖水生态系统生产总值的主要因素。气候变化影响下，水温升高引起初级生产力增加及鱼类数量增长，同时近年来水体矿化度下降有利于水生生物生长，提高了固碳释氧和物种保育价值。水位与水面面积增加引起水源涵养、洪水调蓄价值增长；蒸发量减少导致气候调节价值下降。人类合理开发利用与保护作用下，物种保育、休闲旅游和科研教育价值均得到了显著提升。本研究量化了青海湖水生态系统对人类的贡献，为变化环境下退化水生态系统修复、生态保护措施效果定量评价提供了科学依据。建议定期核算青海湖水生态系统生产总值，跟踪评估气候变化与人类活动共同影响下青海湖水生态系统变化，对维持青藏高原东北部生态安全具有重要作用。 |
| 关键词: 青海湖 水生态系统生产总值 水生态系统服务功能 气候变化 生态脆弱区 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:创新研究群体科学基金 |
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| Analysis of the Change and Impact Factors of Gross Aquatic Ecosystem Product of Qinghai Lake in Recent Ten Years |
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Li Qinyuan,Zhang Sijiu,Lin Yuqin,Chen Qiuwen,Feng Tao,Chen Mo
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Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
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| Abstract: |
| Under the joint effects of climate change and human activities, lake ecosystem and its services have changed. It is crucial to study on the dynamics and impact factors of aquatic ecosystem services of lakes for maintaining ecosystem health and achieving sustainable utilization of their functions. Qinghai Lake, located in a climate-sensitive and ecologically fragile region, was selected as the study area. Based on the characteristics and current conservation status of aquatic ecosystem of Qinghai Lake, an index system for evaluating gross aquatic ecosystem product was established, including eight assessment indicators, which belonged to two categories including regulation services and cultural services. Gross aquatic ecosystem product of Qinghai Lake from 2010 to 2020 were calculated, and the change trend and major influencing factors were also analyzed. In 2010 to 2020, the gross aquatic ecosystem product of Qinghai Lake ranged from 690.347 billion RMB to 784.855 billion RMB, showing an overall fluctuating upward trend. Regulation service was the major type of aquatic ecosystem services of Qinghai Lake, the value of which accounted for 91%. Over the decade, except for climate regulation and water purification, the value of other ecosystem services increased. The value of water conservation increased the most, by 76.070 billion RMB, while the value of climate regulation decreased the most, by 65.859 billion RMB. Partial least squares regression analysis showed that water temperature and water level were the major effect factors for gross aquatic ecosystem product of Qinghai Lake. Under the effect of climate change, the increase in water temperature raised primary productivity and fish population. Meanwhile, the salinity of Qinghai Lake decreased in recent years, contributing to the growth of aquatic organisms, increasing the value of carbon sequestration and oxygen release, and biodiversity conservation. The increase in water level and surface area increased the value of water conservation, flood regulation and storage. The decline in the value of climate regulation was due to the decrease in evaporation in Qinghai Lake basin. Under the effect of human rational utilization and conservation, the value of biodiversity conservation, leisure tourism, and scientific research and education were significantly improved. This study quantitatively assessed the contribution of Qinghai Lake aquatic ecosystem to human, and provided a scientific basis of the quantitative evaluation of the restoration of degraded aquatic ecosystem and the effect of ecological conservation measures under the changing environment. We suggested to calculate the gross aquatic ecosystem product of Qinghai Lake regularly and conduct follow-up evaluation of the changes in the aquatic ecosystem of Qinghai Lake, which plays an essential role in maintaining the ecological security of the northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. |
| Key words: Qinghai Lake gross aquatic ecosystem product aquatic ecosystem services climate change ecologically vulnerable region |
