基于多尺度分解与深度学习融合的河道水温变化归因分析——以金沙江下游梯级水库群为例
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1.水利部长江上中游水库群调度运行对河流生态系统影响要素野外科学观测研究站;2.湖北三峡职业技术学院;3.中国长江电力股份有限公司

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国家自然科学基金青年(52409096、52009066);湖北省自然科学基金(2024AFC010)资助;遥感科学国家重点实验室开放基金(OFSLRSS202413);长江科学研究院开放基金(CKWV20241208/KY)


Attribution Analysis of River Water Temperature Changes Based on the Integration of Multi-Scale Decomposition and Deep Learning: A Case Study of the Cascade Reservoir System in the Lower Jinsha River
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Field Scientific Observation and Research Station of Impacts of Middle and Upper Yangtze River Reservoir Group Operation on River Ecosystem, Ministry of Water Resources

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    摘要:

    梯级水库运行对于河道水温的影响十分显著。本文基于最大重叠离散小波变换(MODWT)与多分辨率分析(MRA),结合ERA5-Land再分析数据与Bi-LSTM模型,构建了气候变化与水库运行对河道水温影响的量化归因框架,并以金沙江下游向家坝站为例,探究了梯级水库群运行对下游河道水温的多尺度影响。研究结果表明:(1)梯级水库联合运行显著削弱了中高频尺度(日、周、月尺度)的水温波动,呈现“平滑效应”;(2)在低频尺度(季节及年际尺度)上,水库运行导致水温出现“坦化效应”和“滞后效应”,且水库越多效应越强;(3)季节尺度的水温变化主要由水库运行主导,而年尺度变化在四库联合运行阶段主要受气候变化驱动。本研究揭示了梯级水库对水温影响的多时间尺度特征,提出了新的归因分析方法,为水库生态调度与流域水温管理提供了科学依据。

    Abstract:

    The operation of cascade reservoirs has a significant impact on river water temperature. This study constructs a quantitative attribution framework to distinguish the impacts of climate change and reservoir operation on river water temperature by integrating the Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT), Multiresolution Analysis (MRA), ERA5-Land reanalysis data, and a Bi-LSTM model. Taking the Xiangjiaba Station in the lower Jinsha River as a case study, the multi-scale effects of cascade reservoir operation on water temperature were investigated. The results indicate that: (1) The joint operation of the cascade reservoirs significantly dampens water temperature fluctuations at medium-to-high frequencies (daily, weekly, monthly scales), exhibiting a "smoothing effect"; (2) At low frequencies (seasonal and inter-annual scales), reservoir operation leads to a significant "attenuation effect" and "lag effect" on water temperature, and these effects intensify with an increasing number of reservoirs in operation; (3) Reservoir operation is the dominant factor driving water temperature changes at the seasonal scale, while climate change primarily drives the changes at the annual scale during the four-reservoir joint operation period. This study reveals the multi-temporal scale characteristics of the impact of cascade reservoirs on water temperature, proposes a novel attribution analysis method, and provides a scientific basis for the ecological operation of reservoirs and watershed water temperature management.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-16
  • 最后修改日期:2025-12-27
  • 录用日期:2025-12-29
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-13
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