青藏高原湖泊表层水温的非线性协同驱动机制:基于深度学习+SHAP融合分析框架
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作者单位:

1.南京大学地理与海洋科学学院;2.南京大学建筑与城市规划学院

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Nonlinear Synergistic Driving Mechanisms of Surface Water Temperature in Lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: A Deep Learning + SHAP Integrated Analytical Framework
Author:
Affiliation:

1.School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University;2.School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Nanjing University

Fund Project:

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)

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    摘要:

    青藏高原是全球气候变化敏感区,其高海拔湖泊水温(LSWT)的演变对区域生态安全具有重要指示意义。在探究影响湖泊水温变化的因素时,涉及气象条件、地形地貌等多种影响因子。然而,传统方法对多因子非线性交互效应的定量解析能力有限。本研究以青藏高原106个大中型湖泊为对象,构建基于长短期记忆网络(LSTM)的深度学习模型,结合SHAP(SHapley Additive exPlanation)可解释性方法,分别从整体与个体湖泊尺度上,定量分析了气温、降水、向下长波辐射、向下短波辐射、气压、比湿和风速7项因子对LSWT的影响。具体而言,研究系统解析了各驱动因子的独立作用效应、因子间的交互作用效应,以及这些效应在不同湖泊间的差异性,进而揭示了LSWT变化的驱动机制及其协同作用模式。结果表明:(1)向下长波辐射和向下短波辐射是LSWT的主导驱动因子,在整体与个体尺度贡献度分别位列前两位(全局SHAP值占比>80%),且与LSWT呈显著正相关;气温、比湿次之,降水和风速影响最小。(2)因子间交互效应普遍存在,识别出四类主导协同驱动模式:线型(如向下长波辐射-气温,67.92%湖泊)、倒U型(如比湿-气温,51.89%湖泊)、效应交叉型(如风速-比湿,70.75%湖泊)及阈值约束型(如降水-气压,100%湖泊)。(3)SHAP方法有效量化了协同驱动的非线性特征,揭示了高原湖泊对辐射因子的高度敏感性,归因于稀薄大气下太阳辐射的高渗透性。本研究创新性地融合深度学习与可解释性分析,为高海拔湖泊水温的复杂驱动机制提供了定量化解析框架,对预测气候变化下的水温响应及制定差异化调控策略具有切实科学意义。

    Abstract:

    The Tibetan Plateau, a globally sensitive region to climate change, exhibits significant implications of its high-altitude lake surface water temperature (LSWT) evolution for regional ecological security. When exploring the factors influencing lake water temperature changes, various influencing factors are involved, such as meteorological conditions and topography. However, conventional methodologies demonstrate limited capacity in quantitatively resolving nonlinear interactive effects among multiple drivers. This study investigated 106 large-medium lakes across the Tibetan Plateau, developing a deep learning model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks integrated with SHapley Additive explanation (SHAP) interpretability analysis. We quantitatively differentiated the individual and interactive contributions of seven drivers (air temperature, precipitation, downward longwave radiation, downward shortwave radiation, air pressure, specific humidity, and wind speed) to LSWT variations at both regional and individual lake scales, systematically elucidating driving mechanisms and synergistic patterns. Key findings reveal: (1) Longwave and shortwave radiation emerged as dominant drivers, collectively contributing more than 80.0% of global SHAP values across scales, exhibiting significant positive correlations with LSWT. Air temperature and specific humidity demonstrated secondary influences, while precipitation and wind speed showed minimal impacts. (2) Ubiquitous interactive effects identified four predominant synergistic modes: linear pattern (e.g., downward longwave radiation-air temperature, 67.92% lakes), inverted U-shape pattern (e.g., specific humidity-air temperature, 51.89% lakes), effect cross-driven pattern (e.g., wind speed-specific humidity, 70.75% lakes), and threshold-constrained pattern (e.g., precipitation-air pressure, 100% lakes). (3) SHAP methodology effectively quantified nonlinear synergistic characteristics, revealing plateau lakes" heightened sensitivity to radiative factors attributable to high solar radiation permeability under thin atmospheric conditions. This study innovatively integrates deep learning with interpretability analysis, establishing a quantitative framework for disentangling complex driving mechanisms of high-altitude LSWT. The findings provide critical insights for predicting thermal responses under climate change and formulating differentiated regulatory strategies, bearing substantial practical scientific significance.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-24
  • 最后修改日期:2025-06-17
  • 录用日期:2025-06-18
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-16
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