太湖流域风、暴、潮、洪“四碰头”典型台风暴雨洪水过程特性分析
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1.太湖流域管理局水文局(信息中心);2.新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院

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国家自然科学基金长江水科学研究联合基金(U2340221)


Characteristic Analysis on Rainstorm and Flood Process during Typical “Four Colliding” Typhoons of Wind, Storm, Tide and Flood in the Taihu Basin
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    摘要:

    “四碰头”台风对太湖流域的影响已成为防灾减灾体系中关注的热点,但其带来的风、暴、潮、洪对流域防洪安全产生的风险影响尚不明晰。开展“四碰头”典型台风的暴雨洪水运动分析对保障流域水安全具有重要意义。本文以1990年以来“菲特”和“烟花”两个“四碰头”典型台风为样本,以其他二、三碰头台风为参照,基于水文、工情等实测资料,对比研究“四碰头”台风对流域防洪安全的影响。结果表明:(1)“四碰头”台风均造成极端降雨,总量大、范围广,造成的流域平均降雨量高于二、三碰头台风均值7成以上,高出部分与2009年“莫拉克”台风造成的流域降雨量基本持平。(2)太湖水位涨幅分别位列1949年以来第2、3位,特别是“烟花”台风期间太湖发生编号洪水,太湖湖面最大倾斜1.00 m以上,地区河网33站最高水(潮)位打破历史极值,高水位持续时间长,严重威胁流域区域防洪安全。(3)太湖流域在“菲特”时期以充分调蓄为主,随后流域骨干工程排水能力显著增强,在“烟花”时期洪水运动格局转变为蓄泄兼筹,蓄泄比由1:0.6转变为1:1.1,外排比重提升。(4)在暴雨期间,两场台风流域排水量受天文大潮顶托的制约较为明显,降雨停止并渡过天文大潮后,骨干工程排水量明显增加,以北排长江、东出黄浦江水量增加的更为明显。(5)虽然流域骨干工程排水能力显著加强,但在面对“四碰头”台风以及区域洪涝灾害风险转移的情况下,流域排洪能力仍需进一步提升。研究成果可为今后科学防御太湖流域“四碰头”台风提供参考。

    Abstract:

    The impact of the "four colliding" typhoons has become the focus of attention in the disaster prevention and reduction system in the Taihu basin. However, the risk impact of wind, storm, tide, and flood brought by it on the safety of flood prevention is still unclear. It is considerable to carry out the analysis of rainstorm, flood and its movement caused by the typical typhoon of "four colliding".It takes the two typical typhoons "Fitow" and "In-Fa" since 1990 as samples, and other typhoons with two or three colliding as references. Based on hydrological and engineering data, the impact of "four colliding" typhoons is compared. The results showed that: (1) The "four colliding" typhoons all caused extreme rainfall, with a large total amount and wide range, resulting in the rainfall that was more than 70% higher than the average of the two and three colliding typhoons. The higher part was basically the same as the rainfall caused by typhoon Morakot in 2009. (2) The water levels of the Taihu Lake has risen by the second and third place respectively since 1949. In particular, "In-Fa" caused numbered floods, and the maximum tilt of the Taihu Lake was more than 1.00 m. The highest water (tide) level of 33 sites in the river network broke the historical records, and the high water levels lasted for a long time, which seriously threatened the safety of regional flood prevention. (3) It was dominated by storage during "Fitow", and then the drainage capacity of backbone projects was significantly enhanced. During "In-Fa", the flood movement pattern changed to both storage and drainage, with the storage and drainage ratio changing from 1:0.6 to 1:1.1, and the proportion of drainage increased. (4) During the rainstorm of the two typhoons, the drainage was obviously restricted by the astronomical spring tide jacking. After the rainfall stopped and the astronomical spring tide passed, the drainage of the backbone projects increased significantly, especially the Yangtze river to the north and the Huangpu river to the east. (5) Although the drainage capacity of the backbone projects has been significantly strengthened, it still needs to be further improved in the face of the "four colliding" typhoon and the transfer of regional flood disaster risks. The research results could provide a reference for the scientific defense of the "four colliding" typhoon in the Taihu basin in the future.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-06
  • 最后修改日期:2025-05-27
  • 录用日期:2025-05-30
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-25
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