2018-2023年滇池蓝藻水华暴发特征及藻情反弹成因分析
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1.:昆明市滇池高原湖泊研究院;2.:中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所湖泊与流域水安全重点实验室

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Characteristics of Cyanobacterial Blooms and the Causes of Bloom Resurgence in Dianchi Lake from 2018 to 2023
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1.: Kunming Dianchi and Plateau lakes Institute;2.: Key Laboratory of Lake and Watershed Science for Water Security,Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    经过多年的综合治理,滇池蓝藻水华的防控取得了显著的阶段性成效。自2018年以来,滇池蓝藻水华的暴发天数逐渐减少,水华面积也大幅下降。然而,2023年滇池藻情出现了反弹,引发了广泛关注。本研究基于2018-2023年滇池的MODIS卫星影像,结合水质、气象监测结果,系统分析了滇池藻情变化特征及其暴发机制。监测数据显示,近六年,滇池年水华发生率呈"V"型变化,2023年(87.0%)显著高于六年均值(69.3%);2022-2023年的平均水华面积较2018-2021年明显降低,2023年的平均水华面积(15.86 km2)比六年均值低65.3%,但较2022年回升11.4%。Spearman相关分析揭示,水华发生率、平均水华面积与气温、降雨量呈显著正相关,与风速呈显著负相关;藻密度与总磷呈显著正相关。多元线性回归分析结果表明,气温和风速是调控滇池蓝藻水华的关键气象因子,而总磷浓度对藻密度变化的解释力有限。在2018-2023年藻密度持续超过轻度水华阈值(1.0×107 cells/L)的背景下,2023年滇池藻情反弹主要受气象因子的协同调控。具体而言,非主藻期(1-5月、12月)13-20℃温度比例上升加快蓝藻复苏,主藻期(6-11月)<2 m/s低风速频率增加促进藻类上浮聚集,<13℃温度比例下降有利于蓝藻生长,可能共同促使了2023年水华发生率上升;而主藻期20-25℃高温比例显著上升加速蓝藻上浮,则可能是当年水华面积扩大的重要驱动因素。本研究的结果不仅为滇池蓝藻水华的日常防控和预测预警提供了理论支撑,也为云南省其他高原湖泊的蓝藻水华治理提供了科学参考。

    Abstract:

    Through years of integrated remediation efforts, the prevention and control of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Dianchi have achieved remarkable interim progress. Since 2018, both the annual frequency of cyanobacterial blooms and the spatial extent of blooms have exhibited a sustained declining trend. However, a notable resurgence of cyanobacterial blooms was observed in 2023, drawing significant scientific and public attention. This study systematically analyzed the variation characteristics and outbreak mechanisms of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Dianchi based on MODIS satellite imagery data (2018-2023) and integrated water quality and meteorological monitoring data. The monitoring data indicated that over the past six years, the annual frequency of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Dianchi exhibited a "V"-shaped trend, with the value in 2023 (87.0%) being significantly higher than the six-year average (69.3%). The average cyanobacterial bloom area from 2022 to 2023 was markedly lower than that from 2018 to 2021. Specifically, the average cyanobacterial bloom area in 2023 (15.86 km2) was 65.3% lower than the six-year mean, though it showed an 11.4% increase compared to 2022. Spearman correlation analysis revealed that the frequency of cyanobacterial blooms and the average bloom area were significantly positively correlated with air temperature and precipitation but significantly negatively correlated with wind speed. Additionally, cyanobacterial density showed a significant positive correlation with total phosphorus. Multivariate linear regression analysis demonstrated that air temperature and wind speed were the key meteorological factors regulating cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Dianchi, whereas the explanatory power of total phosphorus concentration for variations in algal density was limited. Against the background of cyanobacterial density persistently exceeding the mild bloom threshold (1.0×10? cells/L) from 2018 to 2023, the rebound of cyanobacterial conditions in Lake Dianchi in 2023 was primarily driven by the synergistic regulation of meteorological factors. More specifically, during the non-bloom period (January-May and December), the increased proportion of 13-20°C temperatures accelerated cyanobacterial resurgence. In the bloom period (June-November), the higher frequency of low wind speeds (<2 m/s) facilitated cyanobacterial surfacing and aggregation, while the decreased proportion of temperatures below 13°C favored cyanobacterial proliferation. These combined factors likely contributed to the elevated incidence of algal blooms observed in 2023. Moreover, the significantly increased proportion of high temperatures (20–25°C) during the bloom period likely enhanced cyanobacterial buoyancy, serving as a key driver for the expansion of bloom coverage that year. The findings not only provide theoretical support for the daily prevention, prediction, and early warning of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Dianchi, but also offer scientific references for managing cyanobacterial blooms in other plateau lakes in Yunnan Province.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-26
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-08
  • 录用日期:2025-07-21
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-09
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