Abstract:Against the backdrop of intensifying climate change and urbanization, the increasing frequency of extreme compound hydrological events has disrupted urban production and daily life, posing threats to public safety and property. Understanding the joint frequency characteristics and underlying mechanisms of these extreme events is critical for ensuring water security. This study employs copula-based joint distribution theory to analyze the joint frequency characteristics of extreme rainfall-flood, flood-tide, and rainfall-tide compound events in the Taihu basin, revealing the changing patterns of their co-occurrence probabilities across different urbanization stages. Compared to the early period, extreme water levels, tidal levels, and rainfall during the rapid urbanization phase have shown a significant increase, with the annual maximum 1-day rainfall rising by more than 15% and the annual maximum 1-day water level increasing by over 6%. Moreover, the mean values of hydrological elements in the Wuchengxiyu sub-region are consistently higher than those in the Yangchengdianmao sub-region. The Wuchengxiyu sub-region faces a higher risk of extreme rainfall-flood compound events, while the Yangchengdianmao sub-region is more prone to extreme rainfall-tide and flood-tide compound events. The study highlights that extreme compound hydrological events in the Taihu basin are significantly influenced by urbanization intensity, with the probability of encountering such events during the rapid urbanization period approximately doubling. Notably, the rate of change in return periods is greater in the Wuchengxiyu sub-region than in the Yangchengdianmao sub-region. These findings provide valuable scientific insights for engineering hydrological design and flood risk mitigation in the Taihu basin and other rapidly urbanizing regions.