城镇化背景下太湖平原地区水文极端事件的联合频率变化特征
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1:南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京 210023 ;2:宁波大学土木工程与地理环境学院,宁波 315211 ;3:泉州师范学院资源与环境科学学院,泉州 362000

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国家自然科学基金项目(42471035, U2240203)资助


Variation characteristics of joint frequency for compound extreme hydrological events under the background of urbanization in the Taihu Basin
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1:School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023 , P.R.China ;2:School of Civil & Environmental Engineering and Geography Science, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211 , P.R.China ;3:College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Quanzhou Normal University, Quanzhou 362000 , P.R.China

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    摘要:

    随着气候变化和城镇化影响的加剧,极端复合水文事件频发,威胁人民生命财产安全,揭示极端水文事件的联合频率特征及其变化机制对水安全保障至关重要。本研究基于联合分布理论分析了太湖平原地区极端雨洪、洪潮和雨潮复合事件的联合频率变化特征,揭示了不同城镇化阶段极端水文事件遭遇概率的变化规律。结果表明:相比城镇化早期,城镇化高速期极端水位、潮位和降雨等水文要素均有所增加,年最大1日降水增幅达15%以上,年最大1日水位增幅达6%以上;武澄锡虞区各水文要素的均值均大于阳澄淀泖区。武澄锡虞区遭遇极端雨洪复合事件的风险较大,而阳澄淀泖区遭遇极端雨潮和洪潮复合事件的风险相对较大。太湖平原地区极端水文复合事件受到城镇化程度的显著影响,城镇化高速期遭遇复合极端水文事件的概率均增大约2倍,其中武澄锡虞区重现期变化率大于阳澄淀泖区。研究结果可为太湖平原及类似快速城镇化地区的工程水文设计和防洪减灾提供科学参考。

    Abstract:

    Against the backdrop of intensifying climate change and urbanization, the increasing frequency of extreme compound hydrological events has disrupted urban activities and daily life, posing threats to public safety and property. Understanding the joint frequency characteristics and mechanisms of these extreme events is critical forenhancing water security. This study employs copula-based joint distribution theory to analyze the joint frequency characteristics of extreme rainfall-flood, flood-tide, and rainfall-tide compound events in the Taihu Basin, revealing the changing patterns of their co-occurrence probabilities across different urbanization stages. Compared to the early period of urbanization, extreme water levels, tidal levels, and rainfall during the rapid urbanization phase have shown a significant increase, with the annual maximum 1-day rainfall rising by more than 15% and the annual maximum 1-day water level increasing by over 6%. Moreover, the mean values of hydrological elements in the Wuchengxiyu region are consistently higher than those in the Yangchengdianmao region. The Wuchengxiyu region faces a higher risk of extreme rainfall-flood compound events, while the Yangchengdianmao region is more prone to extreme rainfall-tide and flood-tide compound events. The study highlights that extreme compound hydrological events in the Taihu Basin are significantly influenced by urbanization intensity, with the probability of encountering such events during the rapid urbanization period approximately doubling. Notably, the rate of change in return periods is greater in the Wuchengxiyu region than in the Yangchengdianmao region. These findings provide valuable scientific insights for hydrological engineering design and flood risk mitigation in the Taihu Basin or other rapidly urbanizing regions with similar backgrounds.

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宋琛,王强,许有鹏,何玉秀,林芷欣.城镇化背景下太湖平原地区水文极端事件的联合频率变化特征.湖泊科学,2025,37(6):2212-2223. DOI:10.18307/2025.0641

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-03
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