Abstract:As China's largest inland saline lake, Lake Qinghai is an important source of water vapor in the northeast of the Tibetan Plateau, and plays an important role in the regional ecological environment and sustaining the semi-arid ecosystem function. In recent years, the water level of Lake Qinghai has risen rapidly, but the impact of lake expansion on the habitat facilities and grassland has not received widespread attention and reports. Based on Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI images from 1995 to 2019, Hydroweb multi-source altimetry measurements, and SRTM-1 DEM data, etc., this study aims to analyze the influence and potential threat of the lake rapid expansion on the habitat facilities (roads, settlements) and grassland by referring to the growth rate of Lake Qinghai in recent years. The results show that during the period of 1995-2004, Lake Qinghai was in a state of shrinkage, and the water level and area in 2004 was at the minimum. After 2004, Lake Qinghai entered a period of stable expansion. From 2004 to 2019, the water level of Lake Qinghai has increased by 3.27 m, and the annual increase rate is about 0.22 m/a; accordingly, the water storage has increased by 14.25 km3, with an average annual growth rate of 0.95 km3/a. Lake expansion simulation results show that the water level of Lake Qinghai will reach about 3207 m around 2070 at the current rising rate of water storage(relative to the water level increase of about 10 meters in 2019), at that time, 178 settlements, about 1286.91 km of roads and 2042.22 km2 of vegetation will be submerged, among which the predicted high-risk areas are mainly located in Qieji Township, Quanji Township, and Jintan Township. The study is expected to provide important scientific support for anticipating the impact and potential threats of the rapid expansion of Lake Qinghai on local residents, and to provide a scientific basis for formulating plans to mitigate climate change risks in the context of climate change.