| 摘要: |
| 随着气候变化和城镇化影响的加剧，极端复合水文事件频发，扰乱城市生产生活节奏，威胁人民生命财产安全，揭示极端水文事件的联合频率特征及其变化机制对水安全保障至关重要。论文基于联合分布理论分析了太湖平原地区极端雨洪、洪潮和雨潮复合事件的联合频率变化特征，揭示了不同城镇化阶段极端水文事件遭遇概率的变化规律。结果表明：城镇化高速期极端水位、潮位和降雨等水文要素相比于早期均有所提高；城镇化高速期年最大1日降水增幅达15%以上，年最大1日水位增幅达6%以上，且武澄锡虞区各水文要素的均值都要大于阳澄淀泖区。武澄锡虞区遭遇极端雨洪复合事件风险较大，而阳澄淀泖区极端雨潮和洪潮复合事件遭遇风险相对较大。太湖平原地区极端水文复合事件受到城镇化程度的显著影响，城镇化高速期遭遇复合极端水文事件概率均增大约2倍，其中武澄锡虞区重现期变化率大于阳澄淀泖区。研究结果可为太湖平原及类似快速城镇化地区的工程水文设计和防洪减灾提供一定科学参考。 |
| 关键词: 太湖流域 极端水文复合事件 频率变化 联合分布函数 城镇化影响 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金(42101020, U2240203) |
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| Variation characteristics of joint frequency of compound extreme hydrological events under the background of urbanization in Taihu basin |
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SongChen1, WangQiang1,2, XuYoupeng1, HeYuxiu1, LinZhixin3
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1.Nanjing University School of Geography and Ocean Science;2.Ningbo University Institute of Hydraulics and Ocean Engineering;3.Quanzhou Normal University College of Resources and Environmental Sciences
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| Abstract: |
| Against the backdrop of intensifying climate change and urbanization, the increasing frequency of extreme compound hydrological events has disrupted urban production and daily life, posing threats to public safety and property. Understanding the joint frequency characteristics and underlying mechanisms of these extreme events is critical for ensuring water security. This study employs copula-based joint distribution theory to analyze the joint frequency characteristics of extreme rainfall-flood, flood-tide, and rainfall-tide compound events in the Taihu basin, revealing the changing patterns of their co-occurrence probabilities across different urbanization stages. Compared to the early period, extreme water levels, tidal levels, and rainfall during the rapid urbanization phase have shown a significant increase, with the annual maximum 1-day rainfall rising by more than 15% and the annual maximum 1-day water level increasing by over 6%. Moreover, the mean values of hydrological elements in the Wuchengxiyu sub-region are consistently higher than those in the Yangchengdianmao sub-region. The Wuchengxiyu sub-region faces a higher risk of extreme rainfall-flood compound events, while the Yangchengdianmao sub-region is more prone to extreme rainfall-tide and flood-tide compound events. The study highlights that extreme compound hydrological events in the Taihu basin are significantly influenced by urbanization intensity, with the probability of encountering such events during the rapid urbanization period approximately doubling. Notably, the rate of change in return periods is greater in the Wuchengxiyu sub-region than in the Yangchengdianmao sub-region. These findings provide valuable scientific insights for engineering hydrological design and flood risk mitigation in the Taihu basin and other rapidly urbanizing regions. |
| Key words: Taihu basin compound extreme hydrological events frequency change copula function urbanizing impacts |
