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引用本文:孙鹏,张强,陈晓宏.基于Copula函数的鄱阳湖流域极值流量遭遇频率及灾害风险.湖泊科学,2011,23(2):183-190. DOI:10.18307/2011.0204
SUN Peng,ZHANG Qiang,CHEN Xiaohong.Copula-based evaluation of high-and low-flows frequency of the Lake Poyang Basin and the risk assessment. J. Lake Sci.2011,23(2):183-190. DOI:10.18307/2011.0204
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基于Copula函数的鄱阳湖流域极值流量遭遇频率及灾害风险
孙鹏1,2, 张强1,2, 陈晓宏1,2
1.中山大学水资源与环境系, 广州 510275;2.中山大学华南地氏水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室, 广州 510275
摘要:
在以气温上升为主要特征的全球气候变化导致区域水循环加剧、极端气候水文事件频发的背景下, 对极端水文事件, 特别是水文极值遭遇频率的科学认识, 对区域防洪抗旱具有重要意义.基于此, 本文引入当前多变量分析中较常用的Copula函数.分析鄱阳湖流域主要支流赣江与抚河、乐安河与昌江的洪水、枯水流量联合概率特征, 并对引起该流域水文极值频率变化的原因及影响进行有益探讨.结果表明:(1)洪水、枯水的联合重现期小于其设计重现期, 而其间现重现期则大于设计重现期, 洪水、枯水联合重现期与设计重现期的差值小于同现氧现期与设计重现期的差值;(2)在设计重现期相同的情况下, 外洲站和李家渡站洪水联合重现期大于枯水联合蕈现期, 而洪水同现重现期小于枯水同现重现期, 并且重现期小于lO年洪水同时遭遇的机率比较大, 重现期大于lO年洪水遭遇的频率迅速的减小.虎山站和李家渡站的洪水和枯水的联合重现期和同现重现期基本一致, 遭受洪水和枯水的频率基本一致;(3)在设计重现期相同的情况下, 外洲站与李家渡站洪水联合重现期略大于虎山站与渡峰坑站, 洪水同现重现期小于虎山站与渡峰坑站.外洲站与李家渡站枯水联合重现期小于虎山站与渡峰坑站, 枯水的同现重现期大于虎山站与渡峰坑站。
关键词:  Copula函数  极值流量  遭遇频率  联合概率分布  鄱阳湖流域
DOI:10.18307/2011.0204
分类号:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41071020,50839005)、中山大学人才引进项目(37000-3171315)、中山大学理工科青年教师重点培育计划项目(2009-37000-1132381)和中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目(KZCXI-YW-08-01)联合资助
Copula-based evaluation of high-and low-flows frequency of the Lake Poyang Basin and the risk assessment
SUN Peng1,2, ZHANG Qiang1,2, CHEN Xiaohong1,2
1.Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, P.R.China;2.Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510215, P.R.China
Abstract:
The currently global climate changes characterized by increasing temperature have the potential to alter the hydrological cycle in regional and global scale.The intensifying meteor-hydrological extremes should be due to altered hydrological cycle.Sound understanding and good knowledge of probability behaviors of meteor-hydrological extremes are the first step into effective management of resources and enhancement of human mitigalion to natural hazards.In this case, the multivariate analysis method and the Copula function are used in this study with aim to investigate joint probability behaviors of high flow and low flow of the major tributaries of the Lake Poyang, the largest freshwater wetland in China.The results indicate that:(1) The joint return periods (JP) of high and low flows are shorter than the designed ones.However, the joint return periods given X>x and Y>y (JPS) are much longer than the designed ones.(2) Given the same designed return periods, the JPs of high flow at the Waizhou and Lijiadu stations are larger than those of low flow events.Besides, the JPSs of high flow are usually shorter than those of low flow, implying higher probability of high flow events at the Waizhou and Lijiadu stations.The probability of concurrent occurrence of high flow with return periods of < 10 years is larger than that of > 10 years.The JPs and JPSs of high flow and low flow events at the Hushan and Lijiadu stations are approximately similar, implying the similar probability of concurrent occurrence of high and low flow e-vents.(3) Given the same designed return periods, the JPs (JPSs) of high flow events at the Waizhou and Lijiadu stations are larger (smaller) than those at the Hushan and Dufengkeng stations.The JPs (JPSs) of low flow events at the Waizhou and Lijiadu stations are smaller (larger) than those at the Hushan and Dufengkeng stations.
Key words:  Copula function  hydrological extremes  concurrent occurrence  joint probability  Lake Poyang
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