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引用本文:刘健,高建慧,王苏民.中世纪暖期温度变化的模拟.湖泊科学,2006,18(2):97-105. DOI:10.18307/2006.0201
LIU Jian,GAO Jianhui,WANG Sumin.Modeling Study on the climate change during the Medieval Warm Period. J. Lake Sci.2006,18(2):97-105. DOI:10.18307/2006.0201
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中世纪暖期温度变化的模拟
刘健, 高建慧, 王苏民
中国科学院湖泊沉积与环境重点实验室 南京 210008
摘要:
本文利用全球海气耦合气候模式ECHO-G进行的1000个模式年的长时间积分气候模拟试验结果,分析全球和中国地区中世纪暖期的存在性与时间演变、全球性与区域差异、以及变温强度和影响因子等问题.结果表明:中世纪暖期是-个全球性现象,但各地在中世纪暖期温度变幅和位相变化存在差异.中世纪暖期不是-个持续稳定的暖期,而是存在峰谷起伏变化,其中冷谷的持续时间为40-80年.全球平均的中世纪暖期出现在1000—1280年间.其间南半球的温度变幅最大,北半球次之,全球平均最小.中世纪暖期的鼎盛期全球绝大部分地区增温明显,只有大西洋西北地区有- 0.5-1,0℃的降温区,以及南太平洋有-0.5-2.0℃的降温区.北半球最大增温出现在格陵兰地区及西北太平洋地区, 南半球出现在70°-80°S,5°-60°W的海域,最大增温达2.5-3.0℃.整个欧亚大陆和北美大陆都是增温区,增温幅度为 0.5-1.5℃.热带和亚热带也是增温区,但增温幅度仅为0.5℃左右.也就是说,中世纪暖期时,增温幅度在低纬地区最小,中纬度地区次之,高纬度地区最大.中国的中世纪暖期出现在公元1000—1260年间,其间中国西部的年平均温度距平变幅最大,东部最小,全国平均介于二者之间.中世纪暖期鼎盛期整个中国区域温度距平都是正值,中国东部的增温呈西-东向和西北-东南向的带状分布,且由南向北增温幅度加大,由0.4℃逐步增加到0.8℃.中国西部的增温呈高压状分布,且随着海拔高度的增加,增温幅度加大,最大增温达2.0℃-2.2℃.由于模拟试验是在改变太阳辐射、火山活动、CO2 与CH4浓度等因子的情况下进行的,说明太阳辐射、火山活动、CO2与CH4浓度都是形成中世纪暖期的主控因子.至于各因子各自对中世纪暖期形成的贡献,还有待进行单因子和多因子强迫试验进-步探讨.
关键词:  中世纪暖期  气候变化  模式  模拟
DOI:10.18307/2006.0201
分类号:
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(编号:2004CB720208);中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX3-SW-321);国家自然科学基金项目(40475035);中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所创新项目(CXNIGLAS-2006-1)共同资助
Modeling Study on the climate change during the Medieval Warm Period
LIU Jian, GAO Jianhui, WANG Sumin
Key Laboratory of Lake Sedimentation and Environment, CAS, Nanjing 210008, P. R. China
Abstract:
The existence, temporal development, spatial distribution, regional difference, warming intensity and influence factors of the Medieval Warm Period(MWP) of the world and China are discussed in this paper based on the results of a 1000-year climatic simulation experiment from a global atmospheric-ocean coupled climate model ECHO-G. The results show that the MWP is a global phenomenon, but differences of the amplitudes and phases of temperature anomalies exist among all party of the world. The MWP was not a steady and continuous warm period, there were peak-valley undulating changes in it, and the duration of the cold valley was 40-80 years. The global mean MWP appeared from 1000-1280 A. D. The temperature anomaly of the Southern Hemisphere is the biggest, that of the Northern Hemisphere occupies the second place, the global one is the minimum during the MWP. The temperature increased obviously in most areas of the world at the prime of the MWP. The temperature decrease only occurred in the Northwest of the Atlantic Ocean and the South Pacific Ocean, with 0. 5-1.0 and 0. 5-2.0℃ temperature drop, respectively. The maximum temperature increment was up to 2. 5-3. 0℃.It appeared in the Greenland and northwestern Pacific Ocean in the Northern Hemisphere, and in the sea area of 700-800S, 5060°W in the Southern Hemisphere. The whole Eurasia and the North America continents were the temperature increasing districts, the temperature increment was 0. 5-1.5 0C.The tropical zone and subtropical zone were also the temperature increasing districts, but the temperature increment was only about 0. 59C.That is to say, the temperatore increment of the low latitude area is the minimum, that of the middle latitude area is bigger, and that of the high latitude area is the biggest. The MWP occurred during 1000-1260 A. D. in China. The temperature anomaly of the western China was the biggest during that time, that of the eastern China was the minimum, and that of the whole counhy lay between both. The regional temperature anomalies of whole China were positive at the prime of the MWP. The distribution of temperature increments in eastern China displayed west-east oriented and northwestsoutheast oriented zones, and they became gradually bigger from south to north, from 0. 40C to 0. 89Cprogressively. The temperature increment of the western China was high-pressure pattern, and it became larger with the increase of the altitude above sea level. The largest temperature increment was up to 2. 0-2. 29℃.The changes of solar radiction, volcanism, CO2 and CH4 concentrations are all controlling factors for the warming climate of the MWP, for the simulation experiment was performed under the condition of changing solar radiation, volcanism, CO= and CHa concentrations. As for the contribution of every factor to the MWP climate change, much more sensitivity experimenu forced by single factor and multiple factors need to be done in the future.
Key words:  Medieval Warm Period  climate change  model  simulation
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