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引用本文:苏布达,姜彤,施雅风,Stefan BECKER,Marco GEMMER.1990s长江流域降水趋势分析.湖泊科学,2003,15(Z1):38-48. DOI:10.18307/2003.sup05
SU Buda,JIANG Tong,SHI Yafeng,Stefan BECKER,Marco GEMMER.Analysis of Precipitation Trends in 1990s in the Yangtze River Catchment. J. Lake Sci.2003,15(Z1):38-48. DOI:10.18307/2003.sup05
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1990s长江流域降水趋势分析
苏布达1,2, 姜彤1, 施雅风1, Stefan BECKER3, Marco GEMMER3
1.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所. 南京 210008;2.中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100039;3.Department of Geography, Justus University, Germany
摘要:
依据国家气象局提供的实测月降水和日降水资料,运用Mann-Kendall(M-K)非参数检验法验证了降水趋势,并通过空间插补法,由点扩展到面,分析了1990s长江流域降水变化特征,发现1990s长江流域降水变化以降水在时间和空间分布上的集中度的增加为主要特点:时间上,年降水的增加趋势以冬季1月和夏季6月降水的集中增加为主;一日降水量大于等于50mm的暴雨日数和暴雨量在1990s也有了较明显的增加.空间上,年降水、夏季降水、冬季降水的增加都以中下游区的增加为主,尤其以鄱阳湖水系、洞庭湖水系的降水增加为主.1990s长江流域春季和秋季降水的减少以5月和9月两个汛期月份的降水减少为主,除金沙江水系和洞庭湖水系等少数地区外,流域大部分地区降水呈减少趋势.上述1990s出现的降水趋势明显与近年来全球变暖背景下长江流域各地区不同的温度及水循环变异有关.
关键词:  长江流域  降水  趋势分析  1990s
DOI:10.18307/2003.sup05
分类号:
基金项目:中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX3-SW-331),中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所知识创新工程所长专项基金(S220007),国家自然科学基金项目(40271112)联合资助
Analysis of Precipitation Trends in 1990s in the Yangtze River Catchment
SU Buda1,2, JIANG Tong1, SHI Yafeng1, Stefan BECKER3, Marco GEMMER3
1.Nanjing institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, P. R. China;2.Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, P. R. China;3.Department of Geograpy, Justus Liebig University, Giessen, Germany
Abstract:
Applying with Mann-Kendall statistical method and IDW interpolation method, the precipitation trends in 1990s in the Yangtze River catchment were analysed based on the monthly and daily precipitation data provided by National Meteorology Administration of China. The results show:(1) The precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchment are characterized by concentration on temporal and spatial distribution. Precipitation increases in January (winter) and in June (summer) contribute most to yearly precipitation increment; days with rainstorm and magnitude of rainstorm are increased evidently in 1990s compared with time period 1951-1990; the yearly, summer and winter precipitation trends are positive in most part of the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, especially in Poyang Lake basin and Dongting Lake basin. (2) Precipitation decreases in May and in September contribute most to spring precipitation decrement and autumn precipitation decrement, except for regions in Jinshajiang River basin and Dongting Lake basin; the precipitation in spring and autumn in the whole catchment shows negative trends in 1990s approximately.
Key words:  Yangtze River catchment  precipitation  trend analysis  1990s
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