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洪水概率预报评价指标研究
蒋晓蕾, 梁忠民, 胡义明, 王军, 李彬权
河海大学水文水资源学院、江苏 南京
摘要:
在分析现有洪水概率预报评价指标的基础上,建立了洪水概率预报的“精度-可靠度”联合评价指标体系。“精度”指标用于评价倾向值预报的准确性,包括确定性系数、相对误差等指标;“可靠度”指标用于评价区间预报的合理性,包括覆盖率、区间离散度等指标。其中,在“可靠度”评价指标中,提出了一个新的评价指标,即覆盖率判定系数,用以评价多个区间预报结果的整体合理性。以淮河王家坝区间流域为例进行应用研究,结果表明:“精度-可靠度”联合评价指标体系可以对洪水概率预报结果的合理性做出更全面的评价。
关键词:  洪水概率预报  倾向值预报  区间预报  覆盖率判定系数  精度-可靠度联合评价指标体系
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划课题;国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)
Research on the Assessment Criteria in Probabilistic Flood Forecast
JIANG Xiaolei, LIANG Zhongmin, HU Yiming, WANG Jun, LI Binquan
College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Jiangsu,Nanjing
Abstract:
Based on the analysis of the evaluating indicators used in the study of probabilistic flood forecasting, a system of assessment criteria in probabilistic flood forecast is established named as the “accuracy-reliability” joint assessment criteria system. In this system, the “accuracy” estimation refers to assess the precision of preferred prediction using the indicators like Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, relative errors and so on. While the “reliability” assessment means to evaluate the reasonability of predicted interval using the indicators like containing ratio, deviation index and so on. Meanwhile, a new “reliability” assessment indicator named the containing ratio coefficient is proposed to assess the comprehensively reasonability of multiple predicted intervals. The accuracy-reliability joint assessment criteria system is tested in Wangjiaba sub basin in Huaihe River. The results suggested that the accuracy-reliability joint assessment criteria system gives a synthetic evaluation of the probabilistic flood forecasting.
Key words:  probabilistic flood forecasting  preferred value  interval prediction  containing ratio coefficient  accuracy-reliability joint assessment criteria system
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