%0 Journal Article %T 2015-2016年环太湖河道进出湖总磷负荷量计算及太湖总磷波动分析 %T Calculation of total phosphorus loads from rivers around Lake Taihu and analysis of total phosphorus fluctuation in the lake in 2015-2016 %A 翟淑华 %A 周娅 %A 程媛华 %A 蔡杰 %A 胡燕雯 %A ZHAI,Shuhua %A ZHOU,Ya %A CHENG,Yuanhua %A CAI,Jie %A HU,Yanwen %J 湖泊科学 %J Journal of Lake Sciences %@ 1003-5427 %V 32 %N 1 %D 2020 %P 48-57 %K 太湖;总磷;负荷量;质量平衡 %K Lake Taihu;total phosphorus;load;mass balance %X 太湖流域水环境综合治理力度空前,太湖总磷浓度却于2015、2016年重回升势,蓝藻大面积暴发情况也未得到有效遏制.本文从2015和2016年环太湖河道的进出太湖水量、总磷负荷量计算入手,结合雨情、水情、太湖调蓄以及人为影响等各方面因素,分别开展水量和总磷负荷质量的平衡分析.在此基础上,结合2010-2017年环太湖河流多年平均进出太湖总磷负荷量对比,分析太湖总磷的外源、内源变化趋势及来源,探讨2015和2016年太湖总磷升高的原因及控制重点方向.结果表明,2015和2016年为太湖流域丰水年,尤其是2016年发生特大洪水,太湖年内最高水位达4.87 m,仅次于1999年的4.97 m的历史最高水位.2015和2016年大量外源总磷负荷进入太湖,其中环太湖河道带入的总磷负荷量占年度太湖总磷负荷总量的66.8%和74.2%,成为进入太湖的总磷负荷的主要外源;加之,2015年太湖水生植物收割造成当年沉水植物面积较上年同期下降88.7%,水生植物骤减导致对磷的吸收转化能力下降,滞留在湖体中的总磷负荷量占年度太湖总磷负荷总量的21.5%和27.5%,成为影响太湖水体总磷浓度的重要内源.太湖总磷浓度升高又为太湖蓝藻暴发进一步提供了营养盐基础,亟需强化太湖总磷源头的控制、减少总磷入湖总量. %X Government has strengthened the comprehensive management and restoration of the water environment in Taihu Basin. Despite the great efforts, the total phosphorus concentration in Lake Taihu rebounded in 2015-2016. Occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms has not been effectively inhibited. Thus, this essay is going to examine the reasons behind and figure out the key direction in controlling the total phosphorus in Lake Taihu. The water quantity balance analysis and the total phosphorus mass balance analysis will be carried out through the calculation of the total phosphorous fluxes and the water flows between Lake Taihu and the surrounding rivers. Affecting factors, including rainfall, lake storage regulation and human factors, will also be considered. Based on the analysis, we will investigate the sources of total phosphorus change in Lake Taihu as well as the reasons of variations. The results showed that Taihu Basin had abundant rainfall in 2015-2016, especially in 2016, there was a severe basin flooding. The maximum water level of Lake Taihu reached 4.87 m, only 0.1 m lower than that of the historical record in 1999. Enormous total phosphorus load flowed from the surrounding rivers to Lake Taihu, which became the main external source of Lake Taihu's total phosphorus load. The load from rivers occupied 66.8% and 74.2% of the annual total phosphorus load in Lake Taihu in 2015 and 2016, respectively. On the other hand, for internal source, the massive reduction of submerged plants played an important role in affecting the total phosphorus concentration in Lake Taihu. The area of submerged aquatic plants in Lake Taihu decreased by 88.7% in 2015. The large-scale harvest of aquatic plants hindered the phosphorus absorption and transformation capacity of the lake. In 2015 and 2016, the total phosphorus load retained in Lake Taihu accounted for 21.5% and 27.5% of the total phosphorus load. The increase in total phosphorus concentration in Lake Taihu provided a strong foundation for cyanobacterial blooms. It is urgent to lower the amount of total phosphorus into Lake Taihu and tighten the control of the total phosphorus sources. %R 10.18307/2020.0105 %U http://www.jlakes.org/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx %1 JIS Version 3.0.0